Arch Manning’s future has suddenly turned into a four-way fork in the road, and only one of those paths looks anything like the one Texas fans expected when he arrived as the top prospect in the Class of 2023.
Even after a rough season and another uneven showing in Texas’ Week 7 loss to Florida, Manning is still being discussed as a first-round talent in the 2027 NFL Draft. Mike Renner placed him at No. 21 on his 2027 NFL Draft Big Board last week, and that wasn’t an outlier. Other draft evaluators have kept Manning in a similar neighborhood this month, despite what has looked like regression under Steve Sarkisian.
That’s the central tension here: Manning’s film has gotten shakier, but NFL scouts still see the frame, the arm, the athletic ability and the name. The belief is that better development could still unlock a higher ceiling.
If Texas stabilizes down the stretch, there’s still a version of this story where Manning finishes the year strong and the Longhorns close 5-1 to get into the College Football Playoff at 9-3, helped by those early wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee. Backup KJ Lacey also could push things in another direction if his increased first-team work creates real pressure on Manning for the first time since he took over from Quinn Ewers after the 2024 season.
But if the slump continues, the picture gets murkier fast.
One possibility is that Manning simply comes back to Texas in 2027. That would not be a popular idea with Longhorns fans after consecutive losses to unranked opponents, unless Sarkisian changes some things around him.
Sarkisian has stayed loyal to offensive coordinator Kyle Flood and quarterbacks coach A.J. Milwee throughout his six seasons, even after their similar issues developing Ewers.
If Texas wants to sell people on keeping the current regime together, that loyalty may have to change.
The numbers back up the concern. Manning sits 79th nationally in EPA per dropback after finishing 35th in that metric last season, and his downturn mirrors what happened with Ewers, who went from five-star recruit to seventh-round pick in 2024 after three years as Texas’ starter.
A transfer is another real avenue. If Manning wants to reset his career and rebuild his stock, there are plenty of recent quarterback examples to point to.
Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, spent his junior season at Indiana after two years at Cal. Cam Ward moved from Washington State to Miami and became the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 after one year with the Hurricanes.
Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix also transferred for their final two seasons and turned themselves into first-round picks in 2024.
That kind of move would give Manning a chance to find a staff and system that better fits him, especially if Texas doesn’t turn things around and no staff changes are made. At that point, it would be hard to blame Manning or his camp for looking elsewhere.
And then there’s the most pragmatic path of all: the NFL Draft, even if he’s not carrying first-round buzz anymore. If his second half goes badly enough, Manning could still declare and trust that some team will fall in love with the tools, the upside and the last name. A general manager could convince himself that he’s the one who can fix him.
After four years of scrutiny at Texas, that kind of entry into the league might actually help Manning. If he’s treated more like a project than a star, he wouldn’t be asked to carry a team right away. He could land in a pro-style setup, develop at a slower pace and start his NFL career with fewer expectations than the ones that once surrounded him in Austin.
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