Arch Manning’s grip on the top of the 2027 NFL Draft conversation is loosening, and the latest round of evaluation shows just how quickly that can happen.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. now has five quarterbacks ahead of the Texas signal-caller on his newest 2027 board, a notable slide for a player who was once sitting near the very top of the class. Kiper ranked Manning No. 24 overall and sixth among quarterbacks on Thursday, pointing to concerns about his inconsistency, accuracy and decision-making.
That drop came before Texas’ latest setback, a 27-24 loss to Florida at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium that included another damaging late-game mistake from Manning. He finished 14 of 20 for 173 yards and a touchdown, but his fumble on the Longhorns’ final possession ended the game.
The numbers don’t just tell the story of one bad afternoon. They reflect a trend that has started to show up in the scouting conversation around Manning.
Back in April, he was the early favorite to go No. 1 overall. Through the offseason, multiple projections had him on top of the 2027 class.
Now the picture is murkier.
CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson left Manning out of his October 5 first-round mock draft, which included five quarterbacks. Wilson later said concerns about Manning’s decision-making and accuracy shaped that call.
The movement shows up elsewhere, too. Ultimate Big Board moved Manning from No. 1 to No. 2 in its consensus rankings between October 1 and October 15, while his weighted average projected selection shifted from 1.6 to 2.7. Even so, the October 15 snapshot still had Manning in 22 of 25 eligible mock drafts, and he remained first among quarterbacks.
So this isn’t a full collapse. Plenty of evaluators still see a franchise quarterback. But the easy certainty that surrounded Manning earlier this year is gone, replaced by a much more familiar draft debate: how much more growth does he need?
Saturday gave both sides ammunition.
There was the shot-play burst late, when Manning hit Emmett Mosley V for 62 yards on fourth-and-six and then found Cam Coleman for a nine-yard touchdown. It was the kind of sequence that reminds everyone why he was so highly regarded in the first place.
But that came after a long stretch of Texas struggling to move the ball. The Longhorns went 52 minutes and 21 seconds between offensive touchdowns, managed just eight yards over two third-quarter possessions and watched Manning take five sacks. He also finished with zero net rushing yards on 10 attempts.
The supporting cast didn’t help. Steve Sarkisian’s offensive line had issues, the run game only produced 99 yards and Texas couldn’t stay on schedule. Still, Manning has now had three fourth-quarter turnovers across two straight losses.
Against Oklahoma, two interceptions helped turn a 17-7 halftime lead into a 27-24 defeat. Against Florida, his best throw came right before the turnover that ended the game.
That’s why the draft question around Manning has changed. It used to be about where he would go. Now, there’s at least some talk about whether he’ll go at all.
Sarkisian said in June that he wouldn’t be surprised if Manning returned to Texas for a fifth season in 2027, and Wilson has since looked at whether another year could boost his stock ahead of the 2028 draft.
A few months ago, that would’ve sounded like overthinking. Today, it’s part of the conversation.
Ole Miss comes to Austin next Saturday, and Manning will get another chance to steady the narrative. The talent is still there. The throws that make NFL evaluators hit replay are still there, too.
But six games into 2026, his standing in the draft race looks a lot less secure than it did when the year began.
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