Arch Manning Faces A Road Test Texas Can't Afford To Fail

Can Texas maintain their playoff dreams by exploiting Missouri's defensive vulnerabilities while containing their home-field advantage?

Texas’ trip to Columbia on Saturday is the kind of game that can turn the whole season one way or the other. Missouri is 6-2 and tough at home, and if the Longhorns want their CFP hopes to stay in play, they probably need to leave with a win.

The Tigers have already lost twice to the same two teams Texas just beat, but both of those defeats came on the road. At home, Missouri has been a different animal, including a dominant showing against Florida.

That’s why this matchup is going to come down to a handful of key battles, and the first one starts with Will Muschamp against Austin Simmons.

Simmons has been one of the biggest risers this season, putting up a 16-2 TD-INT ratio and closing in on 2,000 passing yards. Still, this Texas defense should be his toughest test yet. If Muschamp can make Simmons uncomfortable and force him into the kind of inaccuracy Texas can pounce on, the Longhorns have a real shot at stealing a possession or two.

The biggest trench battle may be Texas’ offensive line against Missouri’s front seven. That’s the matchup that could decide the game outright.

Texas’ line was a mess against Mississippi State, surrendering six sacks for the second time this season, the other coming against Tennessee. Missouri brings a top 25 run defense and has already piled up 19 sacks.

Daden Hopkins has emerged as a force up front, but the real edge of this defense comes at linebacker, where Nicholas Rodriguez and Robert Woodyard Jr. form one of the best duos in the sport.

On the other side, Texas’ defensive front should have an edge against Missouri’s offensive line. Even if Colin Simmons doesn’t play, the Longhorns should like this matchup.

Missouri’s run game has been productive this season, but the Tigers had trouble against an Ole Miss defensive line that is very comparable to Texas’ group. The Longhorns have spent all season taking away the run and forcing opponents into one-dimensional football, and they’ll need to do it again here.

Jamal Roberts has the kind of ability to take over a game the way Jadan Baugh did against Florida.

Texas also appears to have an advantage with its receivers against Missouri’s secondary. Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are dealing with injuries, which is a concern, but it sounds like at least one of them will be available.

Missouri’s pass defense has been vulnerable, ranking 94th nationally and allowing 226.9 passing yards per game. If Arch Manning gets time, there should be space to work with, and Texas could have a strong day through the air.

That brings it to the matchup that may matter most: Arch Manning against the blitz. Florida and Ole Miss were willing to attack him and trust their secondary to hold up, betting that Manning would make a mistake or two.

If he stays composed and accurate like he did for much of the Mississippi State game, Texas can keep its offense moving. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to see this group finding a rhythm on Saturday, let alone over the rest of the season.

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For a team with bigger goals ahead, those reps matter just as much as the final margin. The Longhorns have already shown they can control a game like this one, but the deeper question is how the depth chart settles once the roster gets healthier and the competition stiffens. Performances like these do not answer everything, but they do create a little more pressure on the staff to keep the right young pieces involved. [Read more 🡒]