The Heisman race has already taken a sharp turn, and Arch Manning is feeling it.
When the season opened, the Texas quarterback sat near the top of the board for college football’s biggest individual prize. Four weeks later, Manning is down to +3000 on FanDuel, a steep slide after a pair of uneven outings from the Longhorns offense.
Texas is still 4-0 and ranked No. 1 going into its bye week, but the numbers behind the last two games tell the story. Manning helped Texas rally from a 20-point hole against Ohio State in Week 2, yet the offense hasn’t really found that gear again since the fourth quarter in Columbus.
Against UTSA, the Longhorns put up only 10 second-half points in a 30-6 win. Then came Saturday’s 20-17 escape at Tennessee, where Manning went 14 of 19 for 201 yards with no touchdowns, one interception and six sacks.
Over the last five quarters, Texas has managed just 262 total yards and 27 points.
While Manning has slipped, several SEC names are surging in the opposite direction.
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor is one of them. He kept rising after throwing for 360 yards and three touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ 24-19 win over Missouri. Through four games, Taylor has 1,192 passing yards and 14 touchdowns.
That matters for Texas, too. Mississippi State is scheduled to visit Austin in Week 9, and that matchup could feature two Heisman contenders on the same field.
The same idea applies to Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who comes to Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 8. Ole Miss is coming off its first upset of the season, a 52-28 loss to Florida.
And Florida has its own Heisman-moving weapon in Jaden Baugh. The SEC’s leading rusher exploded for 142 yards and three touchdowns against Ole Miss, giving him four straight games with at least 135 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns to start the season. He now leads the country with 11 rushing touchdowns.
Texas will see Baugh when Florida visits Austin in Week 6.
So while Manning’s stock has dipped, the SEC has produced a cluster of fast-rising contenders who could end up shaping both the Heisman race and Texas’ own path through the schedule.
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Now the standard is higher, and so are the stakes. Texas is staring at a schedule loaded with ranked opponents while chasing a national championship trip that still remains just out of reach, and the one hurdle that has mattered most in this rise is still standing in the way: Georgia. For Sarkisian, the challenge is no longer proving Texas belongs in the conversation, but turning that standing into the kind of finish this program has been building toward. [Read more 🡒]