Arch Manning came into the season carrying the kind of draft buzz that usually comes with a true QB1. A few weeks later, that conversation has cooled. The Texas junior is still in the mix for the 2027 NFL Draft, but he’s no longer sitting comfortably at the top of it.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid shuffled Manning down to QB4 in his updated big board Thursday, putting him behind Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss, Darian Mensah of Miami and Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State. Reid also slotted Manning at No. 17 overall in his pool of 50 players.
The tools are still obvious. Reid pointed to Manning’s 6-foot-4, 222-pound frame, his arm strength and his mobility. But the evaluation came with a clear warning label: there’s still a lot of work to do when the reads get harder.
"Manning is still only at his best with concepts that allow him to execute simple reads," wrote Reid. "When trying to make full-field progressions, he can hold onto the ball too long. There are also too many moments when poor footwork and mechanics lead to scattershot ball placement."
That kind of hesitation showed up in Texas’ 20-17 Week 4 win over Tennessee, when Manning was flagged twice for illegal forward passes. And while the No. 1-ranked Longhorns are 4-0, Manning hasn’t consistently looked like the quarterback who opened the year as the draft headliner.
But the blame doesn’t land entirely on him. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and the offensive staff may not be putting Manning in the best spot to play to his strengths.
One of the biggest changes has been on the ground. Texas appears to be cutting back on Manning’s designed runs in an effort to protect him, but that also means dialing back the part of his game that can tilt a defense.
Pro Football Focus credited him with 48 designed runs and 32 scrambles last season. This year, he has scrambled 20 times and logged just four designed runs.
That shift may be making him less comfortable, and that discomfort can show up fast: slower processing, longer holds on the ball, missed reads. It may also help explain why the ball is coming out later. According to PFF, Manning is averaging 3.13 seconds to throw, up from 2.88 in 2025.
Texas could argue the safer path is to keep him from taking unnecessary hits. But the danger is still there if he’s standing in the pocket too long anyway. Manning has already taken 10 sacks in 2026, and his 23.3 percent pressure-to-sack ratio is a sharp drop from the 13.3 percent mark he posted in 2025.
The old coaching line says quarterbacks have to stay in the pocket. The better version is that they have to know when to leave it.
The quarterbacks who avoid sacks tend to win more, and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix is the example the source points to. Since 2024, he’s tied for third in the league in wins with 26, and he’s been one of the least-sacked quarterbacks around.
Nix is tied for ninth in pressure-to-sack ratio at 11.6 percent and finished second last season at 9.5 percent.
Texas gets a bye Saturday before a matchup with the 2-2 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas on Oct. 10 on ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET. That break gives Sarkisian and his staff a chance to reset things around Manning, and maybe put him back in position to look like a QB1 again.
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