Week 7 turned into a rough checkpoint for three familiar names in the College Football Playoff picture.
Notre Dame, Alabama and Texas all entered the week in decent standing. They came out with the race suddenly looking a lot tighter.
For now, the CFP field is still just 12 teams, with the conference champions from the top four leagues and a Group of 5 champion already locked in. That leaves seven at-large spots, and those openings are getting crowded fast.
Notre Dame took the most immediate punch. The Irish fell 28-24 to BYU in a game that ended with what looked like a missed pass interference call and a second still appearing to remain on the clock.
Even with the loss, Notre Dame only slid from No. 2 to No. 4 in the AP poll. The bigger problem is the schedule: there just may not be enough chances left to make a strong case.
The Irish still have No. 1 Miami on November 7, and No.
23 SMU is sitting near the end of the schedule. That means any slip in the games that don’t carry the same spotlight could become expensive quickly.
Notre Dame can’t really afford a misstep if it wants to stay in the CFP top 12.
Alabama’s situation is different, but no less uneasy. The Tide were hammered 26-10 by Tennessee for their second straight loss.
That’s a sharp turn after a season ago, when Alabama squeezed into the final CFP spot at 9-3. This time, though, the margin looks thinner.
ESPN’s FPI now gives Alabama less than a 50% chance to make the Playoff.
The schedule doesn’t offer much comfort. Alabama still has LSU on November 7, along with other dangerous tests, including the Iron Bowl against an Auburn team that just upset No.
1 Georgia. It’s no lock that 9-3 would be enough to get the Tide back in.
Texas is in even rougher shape. The Longhorns followed last week’s loss to Oklahoma with another setback against Florida, dropping to No.
- Next comes No.
7 Ole Miss, which means Texas could be staring at a third loss immediately.
And even if the Longhorns get through this week, the road doesn’t exactly clear up. Ranked Missouri and LSU are still ahead. FPI gives Texas just a 41% chance to land a CFP spot, and the Longhorns now sit behind Georgia and Alabama, but also Tennessee and Ole Miss in the SEC pecking order.
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For Texas, that uncertainty matters because the programs quarterback plan suddenly feels a little less settled than it did a year ago. Manning could stay and try to grow inside the current setup, stay and do it under a revamped staff, or look elsewhere if he decides another program offers a better path for his development and draft stock. For now, the only clear thing is that his next move will shape more than just his own career. [Read more 🡒]