Texas A&M’s playoff path just hit a speed bump - and it came in the form of a 27-17 loss to in-state rival Texas. That defeat dropped the Aggies to 11-1 on the season and likely knocked them out of the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings, which are set to be updated Tuesday evening.
For four straight weeks, A&M had held steady at No. 3 in the CFP rankings, sitting comfortably in position for a first-round bye in the new 12-team playoff format. But with the Longhorns spoiling that run last Friday, the Aggies are now expected to slide into the next tier - the No. 5 through No. 8 seeds - which host first-round games instead of skipping them.
Where exactly A&M lands in this week’s rankings is still up in the air. The AP and Coaches Polls both slotted the Aggies at No. 7, and several national analysts echoed that projection.
But there’s a wide range of opinions. Some experts see A&M as high as No. 5, while others place them sixth or even eighth.
That kind of spread reflects just how crowded and competitive the one-loss tier of Power Four teams has become.
The Aggies are now in the mix with Georgia, Oregon, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and BYU - all carrying one loss and all jockeying for position ahead of Sunday’s final CFP reveal. Fortunately for A&M, the resume holds up well.
They boast the third-best strength of record in the country and a top-15 strength of schedule. That’s not just window dressing - those metrics matter when the committee starts splitting hairs.
And let’s not forget: the Aggies also beat Notre Dame, one of the top two-loss teams still in the CFP conversation, and did it on the road.
But the Aggies don’t control their own destiny anymore. Georgia still has a shot to impress the committee in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama, while Texas Tech and BYU square off in the Big 12 title game. Wins in those matchups could shake up the entire seeding picture and potentially bump A&M down a spot or two.
From a matchup perspective, there’s real incentive for A&M to land at No. 5 or 6 rather than No. 7.
The higher seeds are expected to draw more favorable first-round opponents. The No. 5 seed, for example, would likely face the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion - either James Madison or the winner of the American Athletic Conference title game between North Texas and Tulane.
The No. 6 seed could be looking at a matchup with Virginia, assuming the Cavaliers take care of business in the ACC Championship Game against Duke.
But if A&M lands at No. 7? That could mean a much tougher draw - potentially a first-round showdown with Alabama, which is the kind of heavyweight clash most teams would rather avoid until later in the bracket.
Here’s a snapshot of where some analysts currently project the Aggies:
- Stan Becton (NCAA): No. 5 Texas A&M vs.
No. 12 Tulane
- Brad Crawford (CBS Sports): No. 5 Texas A&M vs.
No. 12 North Texas
- Kyle Bonagura (ESPN): No. 5 Texas A&M vs.
No. 12 North Texas
- Chris Vannini (The Athletic): No. 5 Texas A&M vs.
No. 12 North Texas
- Heather Dinich (ESPN): No. 6 Texas A&M vs.
No. 11 Virginia
- Steven Lassan (Athlon Sports): No. 6 Texas A&M vs.
No. 11 Virginia
- Mark Schlabach (ESPN): No. 7 Texas A&M vs.
No. 10 Alabama
- Nicole Auerbach (NBC): No. 7 Texas A&M vs.
No. 10 Alabama
The final CFP rankings drop this Sunday at 11 a.m. ET, and for the Aggies, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Whether they end up hosting a manageable Group of 5 opponent or staring down Alabama in a win-or-go-home scenario could come down to just a few committee decisions. One thing’s for sure: A&M’s playoff dreams are still alive - but the margin for error is gone.