College Football Playoff Picture Comes Into Focus After Quiet Rivalry Weekend
If you were hoping for chaos this past weekend in college football, you probably walked away a little disappointed. Rivalry Week is usually good for at least one or two seismic shifts in the Playoff picture, but this time around?
Not so much. The top 14 teams mostly held serve, and outside of a Friday night stumble from Texas A&M - a team that had already punched its ticket to the postseason - there wasn’t much in the way of drama.
So what does that mean as we look ahead to the final Playoff rankings? In short: the field is just about set.
For teams like Utah, Vanderbilt, and Miami - all finishing strong at 10-2 but without a shot at their respective conference championship games - the door to the Playoff appears firmly shut. Without a title game to boost their resumes, their chances of sneaking into the top four are all but gone.
One Wild Card Remains: BYU
There is, however, one team still lurking on the outside with a chance to shake things up - BYU. The Cougars have a path to an automatic bid if they can take down Texas Tech this weekend. That’s the one scenario that could inject some late drama into an otherwise calm Playoff picture.
If BYU pulls it off, someone’s getting bumped. The most likely candidates?
Oklahoma, Notre Dame, or Alabama - if any of them take a loss in their conference title games. Alabama, in particular, faces a major test against Georgia.
A loss there could open the door just wide enough for BYU to sneak in.
Could Texas Tech be the team that gets left out if they lose to BYU? It’s not impossible, but the odds seem slim. The Red Raiders have done enough to stay in the conversation, and they’ll likely hold their ground barring a blowout loss.
What Happens to Texas A&M?
The other big question heading into the final rankings is where Texas A&M lands after their Friday night loss. The Aggies were already Playoff-bound, but the defeat could cost them in terms of seeding. Expect them to fall somewhere in the 4-7 range - though there’s a strong case to be made that they shouldn’t drop too far.
Stacking up resumes, A&M still compares favorably to the teams around them. Against Oregon?
The Aggies have the better win, stronger strength of schedule (SOS), and superior strength of record (SOR). Compared to Texas Tech?
Again, A&M holds the edge in SOS, SOR, and even in terms of quality loss. Texas Tech can point to two top-15 wins, but A&M’s overall profile remains more complete.
Ole Miss is another team in the mix, but it’s a close call there. The Rebels might have the better loss and a slightly better top win (a road victory at #8 Oklahoma versus A&M’s win at #9 Notre Dame), but A&M still holds the edge in SOS and SOR - two metrics the committee tends to weigh heavily.
The Final Rankings Are Almost Here
So while the weekend didn’t deliver the fireworks many were hoping for, it did bring us clarity. Barring a surprise from BYU or a major upset in the conference title games, the Playoff field is nearly locked in. The only real suspense left is about positioning - who gets in where, and who might slide just outside the top four.
We’ll know more tomorrow night when the latest College Football Playoff rankings drop. Until then, all eyes are on the final few matchups that could still rewrite the script - even if only slightly.