Texas A&M took a hit in the latest AP Poll, sliding from No. 3 to No. 7 after a 27-17 loss to in-state rival Texas. It was a tough pill to swallow in a high-stakes game, but the Aggies are still very much in the College Football Playoff conversation. With conference championship weekend looming, there’s still plenty of movement possible in the rankings-but right now, A&M remains in solid position to host a first-round playoff game.
Most projections have the Aggies landing somewhere between No. 5 and No. 7 in Tuesday’s CFP reveal. That number is going to matter-a lot.
Not just to measure how the committee views A&M’s performance in Austin, but also to see how they factor in the recent coaching shakeup at Ole Miss following Lane Kiffin’s departure. The ripple effects of that move could open the door for A&M to climb.
Let’s break down three potential playoff matchups the Aggies could draw, depending on where they land in the rankings:
Scenario 1: A&M earns the No. 5 seed - and a Group of Five opponent comes to College Station
This is the most optimistic-and least likely-scenario. For A&M to jump up to No. 5, the committee would need to show serious love for Mike Elko’s squad, possibly giving them the benefit of the doubt after a rivalry loss on the road. It would also mean leapfrogging Oregon, which seems like a stretch unless the Ducks stumble hard in their conference title game.
Still, if the committee values A&M’s body of work and penalizes Ole Miss for losing Kiffin, it’s not completely off the table. And if the Aggies do sneak into that No. 5 spot, the payoff could be big: a home playoff game at Kyle Field against a Group of Five team. That’s the kind of matchup you circle in red if you’re an Aggie fan.
One possible opponent in this scenario? Virginia-if the Cavaliers win the ACC Championship against Duke.
In that case, they’d likely slide into the No. 11 spot, setting up a visit to College Station. That’s a matchup A&M would feel confident about, especially at home.
Scenario 2: A&M lands at No. 6 - Virginia still looms
This feels like the most realistic outcome. With Ole Miss losing its head coach, the committee might bump A&M up a spot, especially if they’re looking to reward stability and overall consistency. But there’s one big wild card here: the SEC Championship Game.
If Alabama beats Georgia, things get messy. The committee will have to decide whether a two-loss Crimson Tide team deserves to leapfrog A&M. That’s a judgment call, and it could go either way.
Assuming A&M holds onto the No. 6 seed, a matchup with Virginia still makes a lot of sense. The Cavaliers would be the lowest-ranked conference champion in the field, and a trip to Kyle Field would be a tall order. From A&M’s perspective, this would be a favorable draw-especially for a team looking to regain momentum after a tough rivalry loss.
Scenario 3: A&M falls to No. 7 - and things get complicated
Now we’re entering dangerous territory. If the Aggies drop to No. 7, the playoff picture gets much more challenging. And unfortunately for A&M fans, eight of ESPN’s college football experts have them pegged right there in their latest predictions.
At No. 7, the Aggies could be staring down a first-round showdown with a familiar foe: Alabama. The two programs have clashed every season since A&M joined the SEC in 2012-except this year.
A playoff rematch under the lights at Kyle Field would be electric, but it’s also a brutal draw. Alabama is battle-tested, and you can bet Nick Saban would relish the opportunity to spoil A&M’s postseason.
Another possible opponent? Notre Dame.
The Aggies and Irish played one of the most thrilling games of the season back in Week 2-a 41-40 shootout that went down to the final seconds. A rematch in the playoffs would be must-see TV.
But beating a team twice in the same season is no easy task, and the committee might think twice before setting up that kind of repeat.
There’s also the possibility of facing Oklahoma, an old Southwest Conference rival. The Sooners boast arguably the best defense in the SEC, and that could spell trouble for an A&M offense that’s had its ups and downs-especially against physical, disciplined units.
The silver lining? Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t been lighting the world on fire, and that plays into the strength of A&M’s defense.
Bottom line: Avoid the 7-seed at all costs
When you look across the board at these potential matchups, one thing becomes crystal clear: Texas A&M does not want to fall to No. 7. The road gets significantly tougher from there, with no easy outs and plenty of postseason pressure.
The committee’s decision on Tuesday will shape more than just seeding-it will define the Aggies’ playoff path. Whether it’s a favorable home game against a Group of Five team or a heavyweight clash with a familiar SEC rival, the margin between No. 5 and No. 7 could be the difference between a deep run and an early exit.