Texas A&M enters 2026 with a schedule that leaves very little room to breathe, and ESPN’s updated Football Power Index says as much. The Aggies are projected to go 9-3, a mark that lines up with what Aggies Wire contributors Jarrett Johnson and Dylan Flippo believe is the more realistic outcome.
That forecast comes with a familiar caveat: Texas A&M is not being asked to survive a soft slate. Mike Elko’s third season features the new nine-game SEC setup, and the road gets steep fast with trips to LSU, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. After making the College Football Playoff last season, though, the Aggies are no longer a team people can casually dismiss.
There’s reason for optimism in College Station, even after an offseason that saw 15 starters leave, including a record 10 players taken in the 2026 NFL Draft. Through 16 preseason practices, Elko’s rebuilt roster has been described as one of the deepest in the SEC.
Add in 17 transfer portal newcomers and the 2026 signing class, and Elko believes several spots have clearly improved. Redshirt junior quarterback Marcel Reed has also looked like a player who has taken another step during fall camp.
The first two games should give Texas A&M a chance to settle in before the SEC grind really hits. ESPN gives the Aggies a 98.2% chance against Missouri State and a 90.3% chance against Arizona State, with Kentucky next at 89.5%. After that, the tone changes quickly.
Here’s how ESPN’s updated FPI breaks down the rest of Texas A&M’s regular season:
Texas A&M (98.2%) vs. Missouri State (1.8%)
Texas A&M (90.3%) vs. Arizona State (9.7%)
Texas A&M (89.5%) vs. Kentucky (10.5%)
Texas A&M (43.4%) at LSU (56.6%)
Texas A&M (90.3%) vs. Arkansas (9.7%)
Texas A&M (66.0%) at Missouri (34.0%)
Texas A&M (99.0) vs. Citadel (1.0%)
Texas A&M (41.8%) at Alabama (58.2%)
Texas A&M (69.5%) at South Carolina (30.5%)
Texas A&M (72.%) vs. Tennessee (28.0%)
Texas A&M (50.1%) at Oklahoma (49.9%)
Texas A&M (34.9%) vs. Texas (65.1%)
One of the most eye-catching numbers in the bunch is Oklahoma. ESPN has Texas A&M as a razor-thin favorite on the road, while the Aggies are a sizable underdog at home against Texas. That split stands out even more when compared with the rest of the projection sheet.
For my own predictions, the Aggies fall to Alabama and Oklahoma but beat Texas to close the year, which would leave them at 10-2. ESPN’s model is a little more conservative, but either way, the message is the same: Texas A&M has the pieces to win, and the schedule will make them prove it week after week.
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Mario Craver has already added to that sense of urgency by putting a national championship front and center while also stressing the need to play better late in the year. With Missouri State first on the schedule, the Aggies are leaning into a game-by-game approach, but the larger standard has clearly been set higher than simply repeating last season's success. [Read more 🡒]