Week 10 brings a fresh batch of upset spots, and this time the board looks even more tempting for underdogs.
The first play comes in a game between two teams that have struggled just about everywhere. The numbers back that up, too: one team sits 115th and the other 116th in net adjusted EPA per play, while they’re 124th and 109th in net success rate. That kind of profile usually points to a matchup that should be priced much closer to a pick’em than it is.
Old Dominion has the one unit that stands out. The Monarchs rank 15th nationally in defensive success rate, and that defense is the main reason they can hang around even with an offense that has been a problem all season.
Coastal Carolina’s defense, meanwhile, checks in 102nd in defensive success rate, which opens the door for Old Dominion’s offense to do enough. With the best side of the ball in the game wearing Old Dominion colors, the +225 price is enough to make them worth a look.
Another underdog worth backing is Texas A&M. This has the feel of a sell-high opportunity on South Carolina after three straight wins, while the Aggies come in as a buy-low team after dropping two of their last three.
The gap between these teams is smaller than the market suggests. Texas A&M ranks 37th in adjusted net EPA per play and 40th in net success rate.
South Carolina is 26th and 67th in those same categories.
The Aggies’ defense, especially against the run, is the key to keeping this one tight. At +225, they’re a live dog.
Then there’s Kentucky, which looks like the best upset bet of the bunch. Tennessee’s passing game has been a major issue, with the Volunteers ranking 121st in EPA per pass and 118th in pass success rate. If they can’t lean on the run against the defense in front of them, the offense doesn’t have much else to fall back on.
That sets up well for Kentucky, whose rushing attack ranks in the top 20 nationally. Tennessee’s defense is 50th in opponent rush EPA, and that edge on the ground gives the Wildcats a real path to control the game. In this spot, Kentucky is the underdog to trust.
In Other News...
Texas A&M Just Took Another Roster Hit Before The Season
Texas A&M is dealing with another preseason roster shakeup after former linebacker signee Kelvion Riggins reportedly plans to enter the transfer portal following his departure from the program during fall camp. Riggins, part of the 2025 recruiting class, never got into a game for the Aggies, but his exit adds to a growing list of personnel changes before the season even begins.
The departures have not been limited to one position group, either. Wide receivers Jerome Myles and Jonah Wilson and offensive lineman Nelson McGuire also left the program before kickoff, while Ashton Bethel-Roman remains away from the team for personal reasons. For a roster still taking shape, it is another reminder that the Aggies are still sorting through availability as camp winds down. [Read more 🡒]
Texas A&M Faces A Brutal Road Test With One Clear Weakness
Texas A&M heads into an upcoming road game at South Carolina with plenty to sort through, and the matchup does not look forgiving. The Gamecocks are riding a winning streak and have leaned on a rushing attack led by LaNorris Sellers, while the Aggies arrive with recent road struggles hanging over them and little margin for error away from home.
For Texas A&M, the path is fairly clear even if the execution is not. The Aggies need to run the ball effectively and keep South Carolina from dictating the pace, because controlling time of possession may be their best way to stay in the game and create a chance to steal one on the road. [Read more 🡒]
Texas A&M Suddenly Has Another 2027 Flip Fight On Its Hands
Texas A&Ms 2027 class already has the feel of a recruiting battleground, and the latest twist has only added to the pressure. Linebacker Aston Whiteside has flipped his commitment to Miami, while fellow linebacker Kaden Henderson is drawing attention of his own with a reported visit to Notre Dame, even as he is still expected to sign with the Aggies.
The bigger concern may be four-star edge Frederick Ards III, who has already committed to Texas A&M but has also made a trip to South Carolina. The Gamecocks are actively pushing for him after their recent winning streak, and another visit could be on the table, giving the Aggies another prospect to keep close tabs on as this class continues to take shape. [Read more 🡒]