TCU gets a manageable-looking matchup on paper Saturday, but the Horned Frogs can’t afford to treat Kansas State like a breather.
The Horned Frogs, sitting at 4-5 overall and 2-4 in Big 12 play, host the Wildcats at 1 p.m. at Amon G. Carter Stadium on ESPNU. Kansas State comes in at 4-5 and 1-5, having dropped three straight in a first season under Collin Klein, the former Kansas State quarterback who left his job as Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator to replace Chris Klieman this offseason.
Even with the Wildcats sliding, this is still a program that has had TCU’s number lately. Kansas State has won three straight against the Horned Frogs, and plenty of those players are still around despite the coaching change. TCU is favored by more than a touchdown, but if it wants any shot at winning two of its last three and becoming bowl eligible, this is the kind of game it has to handle.
The biggest question hanging over Kansas State is at quarterback. Avery Johnson’s injury against Kansas on Oct. 17 sent the season off track, and he hasn’t played since.
He’s a long shot to suit up against TCU, though there is still a chance. That’s a major blow, because Johnson was putting together the best stretch of his career before going down.
He was completing 63.1% of his passes, had thrown for 1,301 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, and owned a 77.6 QBR from ESPN, which ranked 23rd nationally. He was also on pace to top his previous rushing high of 605 yards, already sitting at 462.
Without him, Kansas State has pieced things together with Blake Barnett, Jacob Knuth and Dillon Duff, and none has been able to stabilize the position. Knuth started against Arizona State but has been injured the last two games.
Barnett was solid in his first start against Colorado, then cratered in the 66-28 loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday with a QBR of 1.0. Duff has mostly been used in garbage time.
That uncertainty pushes even more weight onto the run game, where Kansas State still has real weapons. Rodney Fields Jr. has become the lead back, rushing for a team-high 574 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Oklahoma State transfer needs 40 more yards to set a new career best.
Joe Jackson remains part of the mix too, even if his role has been smaller in this offense. The senior and third team All-Big 12 selection last season has 392 rushing yards and two touchdowns, plus 14 catches for 132 yards and two more scores.
He’s only had three games with double-digit carries, but he’s made them count - including 159 yards on 27 carries against Kansas. TCU also knows what Jackson can do after he ran for 110 yards in Kansas State’s 41-28 win over the Horned Frogs in Manhattan last season.
The Wildcats’ defense, meanwhile, has not looked like a typical Kansas State unit. They’re giving up 26.8 points per game, which ranks 89th nationally and marks the program’s worst figure since 2020.
In Big 12 play, that number jumps to 35.2 points per game. Every league opponent has scored at least 24 against them.
The biggest issue has been stopping the run. Kansas State ranks 15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in run defense, allowing 172.4 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.
The Wildcats do lead the conference in passing yards allowed, but that number says more about what teams have done on the ground than it does about lockdown secondary play. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker backed that up last week with 313 passing yards and four touchdowns.
That sets up an interesting test for a TCU offense that has started to find some confidence. The Horned Frogs will have a chance to attack a defense that has struggled badly, but one area could still decide the game: discipline.
Kansas State has been the cleanest team in the Big 12 when it comes to penalties, with just 37 on the season and fewer than 40 penalty yards per game. TCU is near the bottom of the league in that category, ranking 14th with 64 penalties and 66.1 penalty yards per game. The Horned Frogs hurt themselves with multiple flags that wiped out points or extended Arizona drives in Friday night’s loss.
Kansas State may not have the same talent level it’s had in past seasons, but it also isn’t a team that beats itself. TCU will need to keep the mistakes down if it wants to take care of business.
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