TCU’s season has reached the point where every Saturday feels loaded, and this one comes with no room for a letdown. The Horned Frogs are back at Amon G.
Carter Stadium on Saturday at 1 p.m. on ESPNU, trying to shake off a brutal 29-28 loss to No. 23 Arizona and avoid another slip against Kansas State.
The Wildcats arrive with their own problems after a 66-28 loss to No. 25 Oklahoma State, but TCU can’t treat this like a soft landing.
Kansas State has taken the last three meetings, including a 41-28 win in Manhattan last season, and that history hangs over this matchup. With Utah and Texas Tech still ahead in two of TCU’s final three games, this one has the feel of a game the Horned Frogs need if they want to keep their bowl hopes alive.
One of the biggest reasons TCU has a real shot is the quarterback situation on the other sideline. Kansas State’s season changed when star quarterback Avery Johnson went down against Kansas on Oct.
- The Wildcats were 4-2 after that win, but since Johnson’s injury they’ve dropped three straight, including an overtime loss to Colorado.
Now Johnson is out, and top backup Jacob Knuth is also ruled out for Saturday. That leaves TCU dealing with a third- or even fourth-string quarterback, with Blake Barnett or Dillon Duff likely to be under center.
The Horned Frogs have to make sure neither one gets comfortable.
TCU also gets a boost from the expected return of Jeremy Payne. The running back has missed three games, but he is not listed on the Big 12 player availability report and is slated to return Saturday.
Payne leads the Horned Frogs with 429 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and TCU badly needs him after a stretch in which the run game has struggled even when the full backfield was available. The matchup lines up well, too, since Kansas State ranks 15th in the Big 12 in rushing defense at 172.4 yards allowed per game.
And then there’s TCU’s defense, which may be the cleanest path to victory. The Horned Frogs allowed a season-high 29 points against Arizona, but Noah Fifita threw for 313 yards in that game, and this week’s quarterback challenge should be less severe.
That doesn’t mean TCU can relax. The defense has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games, and a third straight defensive score could swing the afternoon.
Still, Kansas State has reasons to believe it can spoil things again. The Wildcats have owned this matchup lately, and plenty of players on their roster haven’t experienced a loss to TCU. That kind of edge matters, especially for a team that has won three straight in the series dating back to 2022.
Kansas State also brings a real pass-rush threat in Wendell Gregory. The Oklahoma State transfer has been the Wildcats’ best defender, piling up a team-high 10.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Voted Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year and third-team All-Big 12 last season, Gregory has been a major addition for Kansas State, and he’s not alone up front. Jayden Bryant and Jordan Allen give the Wildcats more edge pressure, and TCU’s offensive line has to hold up after showing signs of improvement.
The final concern for the Horned Frogs is self-inflicted damage. Kansas State leads the Big 12 in fewest penalties and penalty yards per game, while TCU sits 14th in both categories.
The Horned Frogs have too often sabotaged themselves with flags, especially on offense, and that’s the kind of mistake that can keep a struggling opponent alive. If Kansas State is going to hang around with a depleted quarterback room, TCU may hand it help.
Prediction: TCU defeats Kansas State 27-17.
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