TCU heads into the final month with a shot at a statement win, but the assignment in front of the Horned Frogs is a tough one. They travel to Tucson to face No. 24 Arizona on Friday at 9:15 p.m., and both teams have plenty riding on the result.
Arizona comes in at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big 12 after falling 34-26 to No. 13 Texas Tech in Lubbock last Saturday.
TCU, now 4-4 and 2-3 in league play, kept its season on track with a 22-16 comeback win over Kansas. The Horned Frogs still need two more victories to become bowl eligible, and with Arizona, Texas Tech and No.
3 Utah left on the schedule, at least one of those wins has to come against a ranked opponent.
The Wildcats bring the kind of firepower that can make this a long night for TCU, starting with quarterback Noah Fifita. The senior has put together the best numbers of his career so far, throwing for 2,481 yards, 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions while completing 74.1% of his passes. He ranks seventh nationally in passing yards, is tied for 10th in touchdown passes and sits 12th in ESPN’s QBR metric at 81.2.
Fifita has also been rolling lately. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 355 passing yards while tossing six touchdowns and just one interception.
He’ll be the most polished pocket passer TCU has seen this season, and while he is not known as a dual-threat quarterback, he can still extend plays outside the pocket. That makes this the biggest test yet for the Horned Frogs’ secondary.
The other major problem for TCU is Arizona’s emerging star at receiver, Isaiah Mizell. The sophomore has gone from a quiet freshman season - four catches for 39 yards - to one of the Big 12’s breakout players. He now has 34 receptions for 675 yards, a 19.9-yard average per catch, and six touchdowns.
Mizell has been especially dangerous over the last three weeks, putting up 183 yards against West Virginia, 134 against Iowa State and 182 against Texas Tech. TCU’s cornerbacks have held up well at times, but they also gave up some chunk plays against Kansas. If the Horned Frogs want a real chance here, they need to keep Mizell under 100 yards and force Fifita to lean on other targets.
Arizona can also get after the quarterback. The Wildcats are tied for second in the Big 12 with 25 sacks, and senior linebacker Chase Kennedy has led the way with six, which is also second in the league.
Freshman linebacker Dash Fifita, Noah’s younger brother, has three sacks despite being listed at 5-foot-7, 190 pounds. Senior defensive lineman Julian Savaiinaea has added two, and 17 different Wildcats have combined to record sacks this season.
That pressure could be a problem for a TCU offensive line that ranks 14th out of 16 Big 12 teams in sacks allowed. Arizona has made a habit of disrupting quarterbacks, whether it’s Kennedy coming off the edge or blitzes designed to force mistakes.
Still, there may be one path for TCU to make this game interesting: the run game. Arizona’s defense has been strong overall, ranking 27th nationally in scoring defense, third in the Big 12 in red zone defense and fifth in the league against the pass. But the Wildcats have shown vulnerability when opponents can establish the ground attack.
In their two losses, to BYU and Texas Tech, Arizona allowed an average of 238 rushing yards per game. Texas Tech ran for 328 yards at 7.0 per carry, while BYU reached 148 yards and averaged 4.9 per rush, better than Arizona’s season average allowed.
That puts pressure on a TCU offense that ranks last in the Big 12 in rushing at 114.6 yards per game. The Horned Frogs did post their best rushing output against a Power Four opponent this season against Kansas, finishing with 145 yards, but they’ll need even more than that if they want to pull off the upset in Tucson.
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There is at least one encouraging development in the backfield, where freshman running back KJ Edwards has shown improvement and given the offense a small lift. Still, with the Aggies needing a sharper showing to steady their season, the pressure on Reed and the rest of the offense only grows as the schedule tightens and the margin for error keeps shrinking. [Read more 🡒]