The first three weeks of the 2026 college football season have already shaken up the College Football Playoff race, and the biggest swings in the market tell the story pretty clearly. Some teams have turned strong starts into real postseason momentum. Others have watched their odds crater before September even ends.
Using CFP qualification odds on Kalshi from the preseason to now, the clearest risers are Ole Miss and Florida, while Oregon and Texas A&M have taken the hardest hits.
Ole Miss has made the loudest move of all. The Rebels opened the season with 39% CFP odds and now sit at 56%. That jump makes sense after they’ve already collected the two best wins in the country through three weeks, beating Louisville and LSU.
Even with those results, Ole Miss is still just barely better than a coin flip to reach the Playoff. The reason is the road ahead.
Florida, Texas and Georgia are all still on the schedule, along with other tough tests. Kalshi’s win total projection gives the Rebels only a 39% chance to get to 10 or more wins, which leaves the door open for a 9-3 team to sneak into the field.
Florida has also climbed fast. The Gators went from 23% preseason odds to 35% after Week 3, even though they still don’t have a top-25 win. The market seems to like what Florida has shown on the field and what’s happened around it.
The Gators are 2-0 against the spread against FBS opponents, and quarterback Aaron Philo has been excellent. Philo is 8th nationally in passer efficiency rating, ahead of every SEC quarterback not named Gunner Stockton or Kamario Taylor.
Florida’s path also looks a little cleaner than it did in August. South Carolina, Oklahoma and Florida State have all stumbled early, and that changes the feel of the schedule. Texas and Georgia still wait on the road, but 9-3 may be enough to get Florida into the CFP field, and the odds of that are rising.
At the other end of the spectrum, Oregon has been the season’s biggest faller. The Ducks were at 75% in the preseason and have tumbled all the way to 35%.
Their start has been uneven from the jump. Oregon was only mildly impressive in its Week 1 win over Boise State, then got blasted by Oklahoma State in Week 2. A Week 3 rout of Portland State did not repair the damage.
The numbers behind Oregon’s offense are ugly, too. According to Game on Paper, the Ducks are in the 20th percentile in EPA-per-play.
That’s a rough place to be for a team that brought back Dante Moore and a stack of highly touted playmakers and linemen. The schedule doesn’t get easier either, with a trip to Columbus still on the slate.
For now, Week 4 against USC looks like the swing game for Oregon’s Playoff hopes.
Texas A&M has also seen its CFP outlook nosedive. The Aggies were at 40% in the preseason and are down to 13% now.
The damage started with a brutal opening to SEC play against Kentucky. Not only did the Wildcats pull the upset, they controlled the game from start to finish. That kind of loss, especially to one of the weakest teams on the schedule, hit A&M’s postseason case hard.
It may get worse before it gets better. Texas A&M is expected to take another loss this weekend in Baton Rouge, and that could leave the Aggies with no margin for error before September ends. They still have five ranked opponents left, plus a road trip to Norman in late November.
Even with the individual swings, the conference outlook hasn’t changed all that much. The SEC is still projected to be the deepest league in the CFP picture, though its expected total has slipped from 4.52 preseason teams to 4.35 now. Florida and Ole Miss have helped, but Texas A&M, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Auburn have all given some of it back.
The Big Ten has taken a similar step back, dropping from 3.54 expected Playoff teams to 3.24. Oregon’s collapse has done the most damage there, and Washington has also disappointed.
Ohio State, meanwhile, has barely moved at all. The Buckeyes’ loss to Texas hasn’t changed much in the market, and they still have the same 74% chance to make the CFP that they had in the preseason, per Kalshi.
The ACC and Big 12 both remain in position to potentially get two teams into the Playoff. The ACC currently sits at 1.86 expected teams, while the Big 12 is at 1.94.
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