The 12-team College Football Playoff is finally here, and Miami is in the mix. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly and his SP+ model, the Hurricanes have a 1.7% shot at winning the national title-eighth-best among the playoff field.
It’s not the most generous number, but if you’ve followed this Miami team closely, you know there’s more to the story than just percentages. The Hurricanes open their postseason journey on Dec. 20 in a first-round road matchup against No.
7 Texas A&M.
Why Miami Can Win It All
Let’s start with what makes this team dangerous: efficiency. That’s been Mario Cristobal’s calling card since he took over in Coral Gables, and in 2024, it’s paying dividends on both sides of the ball.
Miami ranks 10th nationally in offensive success rate (49.6%) and eighth on defense (34.5%)-a rare balance that only Indiana and Ohio State also achieved this season. In plain terms, the Hurricanes consistently stay ahead of the chains on offense and force opponents off schedule on defense. That kind of consistency, play after play, is the foundation of a championship-caliber team.
Last year, Miami had the nation’s top offensive SP+ rating with Cam Ward slinging it, but the defense was a liability-ranking 52nd and giving up 37.3 points per game in losses. Even in wins, they were giving up 30-plus.
This year, the script has flipped. The offense has taken a step back to 16th in SP+, but it’s still producing 34.1 points per game.
The real story is the defense, which has become elite-allowing just 13.8 points per game over a 10-2 season.
That turnaround starts with first-year defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who’s made an instant impact. He’s gotten breakout seasons from key players, most notably defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr., who’s been a force up front.
Linebacker Mohamed Toure has been the heartbeat of the defense, leading the team in tackles and bringing energy every snap. And the secondary-once a weekly concern-has turned into a strength.
Safeties Jakobe Thomas and Zechariah Poyser, along with corners Keionte Scott and Xavier Lucas, have locked things down on the back end.
On offense, Miami doesn’t need to win shootouts anymore, but they’re still more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Quarterback Carson Beck has been efficient and productive, throwing for 3,072 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 picks while completing nearly 75% of his passes. He’s averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, showing he’s not just dinking and dunking-he’s pushing the ball downfield with purpose.
His top target, Malachi Toney, has emerged as a true No. 1 receiver with 970 yards and seven touchdowns. And on the ground, Mark Fletcher Jr. is the hammer. The Hurricanes have punched in 23 rushing touchdowns this season, and Fletcher’s physical style has been a big reason why.
Why Miami Might Not Win It All
So if Miami has the efficiency, the talent, and the momentum, why does the model still give them just a 1.7% chance to win the title?
Turnovers and late-game decision-making.
In their two losses, Miami turned the ball over six times-matching their total of 20-yard gains in those games. That’s a brutal stat.
Beck threw six interceptions across those two games and averaged just 10.7 yards per completion. When you’re giving the ball away and not stretching the field, you’re asking for trouble.
Then there’s the question of game management, particularly in crunch time. Miami is 2-2 in one-score games this season, and both losses featured questionable decisions in the final moments.
Against Louisville, trailing by three, they played for a field goal late and never reached the end zone. Against SMU, they had 25 seconds and a timeout in a tie game but chose to kneel out the clock and head to overtime-where they lost.
Those are the kinds of decisions that can come back to haunt you in the postseason, where every possession is magnified and every coaching call is under the microscope.
The Road Ahead
All that said, the path forward is simple: win and advance. Miami heads to College Station to face Texas A&M in the first round, and from there, anything can happen.
The Hurricanes have the pieces. They’ve got a defense that can travel, an offense that can strike, and a coach who’s built this team to win the long game.
The odds might be slim. But if Miami plays clean football and makes the right calls when it matters most, don’t be surprised if they make some noise in this new-look playoff.