The women’s final at the U.S. Open has the kind of matchup tennis dreams are made of: Aryna Sabalenka against Elena Rybakina, the top two seeds, the last two winners of the past hard-court majors, and the game’s sharpest rivalry heading into Saturday.
The American fanfare faded quickly Thursday night. Coco Gauff’s errant overhead had barely finished skidding behind the baseline before the exits started to fill up, and Jessica Pegula’s loss meant neither American made it through.
Still, the bigger picture was impossible to miss: for the first time since 2009 Wimbledon, the top four women in the draw reached the semifinals of a major. That set up the final most tennis people wanted anyway.
Rybakina and Sabalenka have been trading blows all season, and this one comes with plenty on the line. Rybakina is chasing her second major title of the year and the third of her career.
Sabalenka is trying to complete a three-peat in New York and nearly a four-peat at Flushing Meadows. No matter what happens, Rybakina will leave with the No. 1 ranking.
Their recent meetings only sharpen the edge. Rybakina beat Sabalenka in the Australian final, then Sabalenka turned the tables a few weeks later on North American hard courts in Indian Wells, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6.
Sabalenka now holds the head-to-head lead, 10-7, and Saturday will be their 18th meeting. That’s more matchups than Björn Borg and John McEnroe had.
Both players arrived in New York with questions attached. Rybakina’s centered on her lower left leg, with a rumor of an Achilles tear swirling before the tournament.
It proved to be noise. She moved through the first week without dropping a set, then survived three-set battles in both the quarterfinals and semifinals to reach one match from her third major title.
Sabalenka’s issue was more internal: the shape of her game and the confidence behind it. Since the Sunshine Double in March, she has slid from that peak and had not won a major this year despite sitting at No.
- In New York, though, she has looked uneven only in the sense that her level keeps jumping from solid to overwhelming.
Her semifinal against Pegula was the clearest example. If that version shows up again, Sabalenka is the one with the edge.
There’s no safety net here. If Rybakina loses, the No. 1 ranking may not feel quite as satisfying.
If Sabalenka loses, she’ll finish a calendar year without a major for the first time since 2022, and she’ll be chasing a rival who has caught her in both ranking and reputation. Rivalry matters in tennis.
Stakes do too. This final has both.