Jannik Sinner walks into Melbourne with the kind of momentum-and draw-that makes a three-peat at the Australian Open feel more like a mission than a dream. The two-time defending champion has a clear runway to the final, and if the bracket holds, he might not face a top-four seed until the semis.
That’s not just luck. That’s a golden opportunity.
Let’s break it down.
Sinner’s Road: Built for a Title Defense
In the Round of 16, the most likely name across the net from Sinner is Karen Khachanov. A solid player with big-match experience, sure-but he’s ranked outside the top 16 and has struggled to consistently challenge the elite. Sinner, with his baseline precision and improved serve, should have the upper hand.
Then comes the quarterfinals, where Sinner is projected to meet Ben Shelton, the No. 8 seed. Shelton’s got a booming lefty serve and electric energy, but history doesn’t favor him here.
Sinner has beaten Shelton eight straight times without dropping a set. That’s dominance, plain and simple.
Now, the semifinals? That’s where things get interesting.
Novak Djokovic-yes, that Djokovic-looms as the likely opponent. He’s the No. 4 seed, the lowest of the top four, but still arguably the greatest to ever do it.
And yet, Sinner has had his number lately, winning their last five meetings. That includes high-stakes matches, where Sinner’s poise and shot-making have stood up under pressure.
If the draw holds, Sinner won’t see Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev until the final. That’s a massive advantage in a tournament where managing physical and mental fatigue is half the battle. Simply put: this is Sinner’s title to lose.
Who Got the Short Straw?
Let’s talk about the toughest draw, and it belongs to No. 7 seed Félix Auger-Aliassime. On paper, he’s in a decent section-no Sinner, no Djokovic, no Alcaraz. But the depth of talent he’ll face is no joke.
His first-round opponent is Nuno Borges, a top-50 player who’s more than capable of pulling off an early upset. If Félix gets through that, he’s likely to see Learner Tien in Round 3. Tien’s been rising fast and plays with the kind of fearless aggression that can make life miserable for higher seeds.
And it doesn’t get easier. Daniil Medvedev, the No. 11 seed and a former Grand Slam champ, could be waiting in the Round of 16.
Then it’s likely Zverev, Alcaraz, and Sinner in succession. That’s a gauntlet.
Survive it, and you’ve earned every bit of that trophy.
Who’s Set Up for a Hot Start?
Jakub Mensik, the No. 16 seed, has a real shot to make noise in Week 1. His first two matches?
Against players ranked outside the top 90. That’s a dream start for any seed, especially one with Mensik’s upside.
If he gets to the Round of 16, he’s likely to face Djokovic. But here’s the twist: Mensik beat Djokovic in the final of the Miami Masters last spring.
That’s not ancient history-that’s recent, relevant, and confidence-boosting. Mensik knows he can hang with the best, and that belief could carry him deep.
Toughest Draw Overall? Look at Borges
If Auger-Aliassime’s draw is rough, then spare a thought for Nuno Borges. He opens against Félix and, if he wins, essentially inherits that same brutal path. That’s a tough break for a player looking to build momentum early in the season.
Sleeper Watch: Emilio Nava
Every Slam has its breakout star, and this year, Emilio Nava could be that guy. The 24-year-old American, ranked No. 88, finds himself in the most wide-open quarter of the draw-no Alcaraz, no Sinner, no Djokovic. That’s a big deal.
Nava opens against French qualifier Kyrian Jacquet. Win that, and he could face No. 26 seed Cameron Norrie in Round 2.
Norrie’s a tough out, but not unbeatable. If Nava finds his rhythm, he has a real shot to make a Week 2 run and turn some heads.
The Australian Open is always full of twists, but some paths are smoother than others. For Jannik Sinner, everything is aligned for a serious title defense.
For players like Auger-Aliassime and Borges, the mountain is steep. And for a few unseeded names, the door is cracked open just enough to dream big.
Let the battles begin in Melbourne.