Emma Raducanu Faces Daunting Path at Australian Open 2026
Emma Raducanu is no stranger to big stages or big challenges. But as the 23-year-old British No. 1 gears up for her Australian Open campaign this weekend, she’s staring down one of the toughest projected roads to a Grand Slam final that any seeded player could imagine.
Seeded 28th in Melbourne, Raducanu enters the year’s first major with a 5-4 career record at the tournament and a perfect mark in first-round matches - a streak she’ll look to extend when she opens against Thailand’s Mananchaya Sawangkaew, ranked 241 in the world. On paper, it’s a favorable start.
But beyond that? Things escalate quickly.
A Brutal Draw from Round Two Onward
If Raducanu handles business in her opener, her second-round opponent will be either Suzan Lamens or the dangerous Anastasia Potapova. That alone is a step up in competition.
But looming in the third round is a potential showdown with world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka - a matchup that would pit Raducanu against one of the most powerful and consistent players on tour.
For Raducanu, it’s a tough break. Despite earning a seed at a Slam for the first time in four years, she finds herself on a collision course with the top seed early. Sabalenka, who came up just short in last year’s final, will be hungry to make another deep run - and she won’t be in the mood for surprises.
Raducanu has yet to beat Sabalenka in their head-to-head history, and if that clash does happen, it would be a major test of her current form and fitness.
Navigating the Rest of the Minefield
Should Raducanu manage to pull off an upset and advance past Sabalenka, things don’t get much easier. Her projected fourth-round opponent is 17th-seeded Victoria Mboko, a rising Canadian talent who’s been gaining traction on the WTA tour with her aggressive baseline play and athleticism.
From there, the quarterfinal could feature a matchup against either Jasmine Paolini (seeded 7th) or Marta Kostyuk (20th), both of whom have the kind of all-court game that thrives on Melbourne’s hard courts.
The potential semifinal? That’s where things really heat up.
Raducanu might find herself up against either world No. 3 Coco Gauff or 8th seed Mirra Andreeva - two of the most dynamic young players in the game.
Gauff, in particular, has been in blistering form, and her combination of speed, defense, and improved serve makes her a nightmare matchup for anyone.
And if Raducanu somehow runs the gauntlet and reaches the final? She could be staring across the net at world No. 2 Iga Swiatek, Amanda Anisimova (seeded 4th), or 10th seed Belinda Bencic - all Grand Slam-caliber players with deep experience in high-pressure matches.
Preparation and Physical Concerns
Raducanu’s road to Melbourne has been anything but smooth. She’s been managing a foot injury that’s lingered into the start of the 2026 season, and while she’s been able to compete, it’s clear she’s still working her way back to full strength.
At the Hobart International - her final tune-up before the Australian Open - she showed flashes of her trademark shot-making in a first-round win over Camila Osorio, but fell in straight sets to Taylah Preston in the second round, 6-2, 6-4. It was a reminder that while Raducanu’s talent is unquestioned, consistency and health remain key hurdles.
Still, she’s embracing the challenge ahead. Speaking ahead of her opening match, Raducanu acknowledged the tricky conditions in Melbourne, particularly the swirling winds that can wreak havoc on timing and ball control.
“I need to get used to the conditions and the courts,” she said. “The wind is quite strong here, so it’s about adjusting the game, accepting that you’re not going to feel like you’re hitting the ball amazingly all the time. It’s a lot of adapting and improvising.”
That kind of mindset - grounded, realistic, and focused on growth - could serve her well in what promises to be a grueling tournament.
The Bottom Line
Raducanu’s draw is, in a word, brutal. From a potential third-round clash with the world’s top-ranked player to a gauntlet of seeded threats all the way to the final, there are no easy outs. But that’s the nature of Grand Slam tennis - and it’s where careers are defined.
For Raducanu, this Australian Open isn’t just about surviving a tough draw. It’s a chance to show that she’s ready to rejoin the sport’s elite, not just as a former US Open champion, but as a consistent threat on the biggest stages. If she can stay healthy and rediscover her rhythm, she’s got the game to make noise - even in a draw like this.