The semifinal stage at the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam is set, and it’s loaded with firepower. The top three seeds - Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Alexander Bublik - have all made it through, and they’re joined by a surging Ugo Humbert. With two high-stakes matchups on tap, Saturday promises to deliver the kind of tennis that reminds us why this indoor ATP 500 is one of the early-season gems on the calendar.
Let’s break down both matchups, what’s at stake, and why these battles are more than just a step toward the trophy.
(3) Alexander Bublik vs. (2) Felix Auger-Aliassime
This is a matchup we’ve seen before - six times, to be exact - and it’s tilted slightly in Auger-Aliassime’s favor at 4-2. But it’s not just the head-to-head that gives the Canadian the edge. He’s won their last two meetings, both in 2025, and both in high-pressure environments: a three-set grind in Dubai and a straight-sets win in the Paris Masters semifinals.
What’s striking about Auger-Aliassime right now is the form he’s carrying into this semifinal. Fresh off a title run in Montpellier, he hasn’t dropped a set in Rotterdam.
His path to the final four - through Alexei Popyrin, Hamad Medjedovic, and Tallon Griekspoor - has been clinical. His serve looks locked in, his forehand is doing damage, and most importantly, he’s playing with the kind of confidence that comes when you string together wins across different surfaces and continents.
Bublik’s road has been bumpier, but no less impressive. He’s taken the scenic route, going the distance in all three of his matches - against Hubert Hurkacz, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Jaume Munar.
That says a lot about his resilience, especially considering he’s coming off a taxing Davis Cup tie for Kazakhstan. He’s been pushed physically and mentally, but he’s still standing.
The X-factor? Bublik’s unpredictability.
He can serve you off the court, throw in a tweener, and then rip a backhand winner all in the same game. But against someone in Auger-Aliassime’s rhythm, that high-risk style has to hit just right.
Otherwise, the Canadian will make him pay.
Edge: Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.
(1) Alex de Minaur vs. Ugo Humbert
De Minaur has made Rotterdam his personal playground in recent years. He’s been to the final twice in a row, and he’s knocking on the door again. The Aussie is 16-2 at this tournament when facing players outside the top four, and he’s kept that trend alive this week with efficient wins over Arthur Fils, Stan Wawrinka, and Botic van de Zandschulp.
His opponent, Ugo Humbert, is no stranger to the big stage either. The Frenchman has already reached a final this season - finishing runner-up in Adelaide - and he’s played some of his best tennis this week. Taking out Daniil Medvedev indoors is no small feat, and Humbert followed it up with solid wins over Guy Den Ouden and Christopher O’Connell.
But De Minaur is a different challenge entirely. He’s quicker than almost anyone on tour, he turns defense into offense with ease, and he’s been a tough matchup for Humbert historically. The head-to-head sits at 5-2 in De Minaur’s favor, and their most recent indoor hard-court clash - at the 2023 Davis Cup - ended in straight sets for the Aussie.
Humbert does have the weapons to make this interesting. His lefty serve can open up the court, and when his timing is on, he can hit through even the best defenders. But De Minaur’s consistency, movement, and comfort on these Rotterdam courts give him a clear edge.
This one might go the distance, but De Minaur’s ability to dig in during the tight moments - especially in a tournament he clearly loves - could be the difference.
Edge: De Minaur in three sets.
What’s at Stake
For Auger-Aliassime, this is a chance to back up his title in Montpellier and reassert himself as a top-tier threat heading into the spring swing. For Bublik, it’s about proving he can string together big wins in back-to-back weeks and go deep in a high-level draw.
De Minaur is chasing a third straight final in Rotterdam, which would be a statement of consistency at the ATP 500 level. And for Humbert, it’s an opportunity to keep building momentum and show he can take down top-10 players in succession.
Saturday’s semifinals are more than just matchups - they’re measuring sticks. And with four players bringing very different styles and stories to the table, we’re in for a compelling day of tennis.