Tennessee’s path to the College Football Playoff is still very much alive, and ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor makes that plain. After the Vols landed at No. 8 in Tuesday night’s rankings, they sit in a strong position with three games left: a road trip to Texas A&M, a home date with No. 21 LSU, and a finale at Vanderbilt.
Right now, ESPN’s simulator gives Tennessee a 49% chance to make the playoff. That number climbs fast if the Vols handle business down the stretch.
If Tennessee wins out and reaches the SEC Championship Game but loses there, the Vols still come in at a 98% chance to make the playoff. If they win out and take the SEC title, they’re locked into a top-four seed and a first-round bye. And if Tennessee wins out but doesn’t get to the SEC Championship Game, the simulator still has them at a 99% chance to get in.
The breakdown gets even more specific from there.
In the scenario where Tennessee wins out and loses the SEC Championship Game, ESPN’s predictor gives the Vols a 27% chance at a first-round bye, a 62% chance to host in the first round, and a 10% chance to be a first-round visitor.
If Tennessee wins out but does not make the SEC Championship Game, the numbers shift to more than a 99% chance to make the playoff, with a 40% chance at a bye, a 56% chance to host, and a 4% chance to go on the road.
The margin for error disappears quickly if Tennessee stumbles. A loss to Texas A&M, followed by wins over LSU and Vanderbilt, leaves the Vols with a 58% chance to make the playoff, but less than a 1% chance at a bye. In that case, ESPN’s simulator gives Tennessee a 20% chance to host and a 38% chance to be a road team.
A loss to LSU with wins over Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and no SEC Championship appearance, drops Tennessee to a 52% chance to make the playoff. That scenario also carries less than a 1% chance at a bye, plus a 17% chance to host and a 35% chance to play on the road.
If Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt but beats LSU and Texas A&M, the numbers are the same as the Texas A&M-loss scenario: 58% to make the playoff, less than 1% for a bye, 20% to host, and 38% to be a visitor.
The simulator’s bigger-picture message is simple. If Tennessee loses any two of its final three games, even with a win over LSU, the Vols drop to less than a 1% chance of making the playoff.
Win two of the three, and Tennessee is just over the 50-50 line. Win all three, and the Vols are in no matter what happens with the SEC Championship Game.
After that, the only question is whether they land a bye, host, or hit the road.
Of course, the committee still has the final say, and that leaves room for a team with a better resume to jump Tennessee even if the simulator likes the Vols’ odds. That’s why finishing strong matters so much for Tennessee: leave nothing for debate.
It starts Saturday. Texas A&M, 4-5, will host No.
8 Tennessee, 7-2, at 3:00 p.m. ET at Kyle Field in College Station, TX.
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An LSU win would do more than just add another ranked victory to the conference ledger. It would strengthen the Tigers' standing as an opponent and help clear some of the clutter in the SEC standings, which is exactly the kind of help Tennessee could use as it tries to keep its own playoff hopes and conference math in order. [Read more 🡒]