Tennessee’s playoff picture is already getting a hard look, and ESPN’s Heather Dinich isn’t nearly as optimistic about the Vols as the numbers are.
ESPN’s Monday ranking of the 31 teams with the best College Football Playoff odds slotted Tennessee at No. 26. The analytics gave the Vols a 20.5% chance to reach the playoff and a 1.0% shot at winning the national title, a set of figures that at least suggests Tennessee is in the conversation before camp even begins.
Dinich, though, didn’t buy it.
“Disagree,” Dinich wrote about Tennessee’s numbers. “The computers give the Vols the 19th-best chance to make the CFP, and that is extremely generous for a team that won four league games last year and seems positioned for a middle-of-the-pack finish at best.”
Her biggest concern starts early. Dinich pointed to Tennessee’s trip against Georgia Tech as a potential turning point, arguing that anything short of a win there would make the rest of September a major uphill climb.
“An early loss to Georgia Tech,” Dinich writes. “If the Vols can’t beat the Yellow Jackets, their nonconference wins will be against Furman and Kennesaw State.
And if the Vols can’t beat Georgia Tech, how will they beat Texas at home later that month? A 2-2 start to September would be devastating, putting Tennessee under tremendous pressure to run the table and beat Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU along the way.”
That’s the tension surrounding Tennessee right now: the same stretch that could bury the Vols could also become the thing that lifts them into the playoff discussion. Dinich named Georgia Tech, Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU as the kind of opponents that can swing the entire season one way or the other.
She also noted that Tennessee’s schedule gives the committee reasons to pay attention if the Vols can survive it.
“Tennessee has the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics,” Dinich writes. “With that comes a little more grace in the committee meeting room.
The Vols won’t necessarily be eliminated because of losses to Texas and Alabama because they can sway the committee members with wins against Texas A&M and LSU. At no point in the second half of the season - when the committee is watching most closely - does Tennessee have back-to-back home games.
The Vols will have to win on the road, and that’s a factor the committee also considers.”
The preseason slate gives Tennessee at least one Top 16 opponent in every month of the season, based on ESPN’s rankings: No. 5 Texas in September, No.
16 Alabama in October, and No. 9 Texas A&M and No.
10 LSU in November. That leaves plenty of room for statement wins, but just as much room for the playoff hopes to get knocked off course.
For now, though, the bigger questions are closer to home. Tennessee opens fall camp Wednesday with the quarterback battle, defensive scheme questions and roster turnover all hanging over the program. Josh Heupel has spent five years keeping the focus on the next week, and that approach figures to matter again as the Vols head toward Furman in 33 days.
Still, the broader map is clear enough: Tennessee’s season will be shaped by those early tests, and ESPN’s playoff math says the margin for error is already thin.
In Other News...
Tennessees Biggest Fall Camp Battle Could Shape This Offense
Fall camp is underway in Knoxville, and Josh Heupel is entering his sixth season with a roster that still has some familiar offensive pieces to work with. Tennessee brings back DeSean Bishop, Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley and Ethan Davis, plus four returning offensive linemen, giving the staff a base to build around as the unit starts sorting out roles and timing before the season gets moving.
The biggest question, though, sits in the quarterback room, where Faizon Brandon and George MacIntyre are competing for the job that will steer this offense. The receiver group is also in flux after losing Chris Brazzell, opening the door for players such as Radarious Jackson and Travis Smith Jr. while five-star recruit Tristan Keys gets his first real chance to push for a spot in the rotation. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessees New Look Roster Just Reached A Key Preseason Stage
Tennessee basketball has wrapped up its summer workouts, marking one of the clearest checkpoints yet for a roster that has been retooled and rebuilt for the 2026-2027 season. With new transfers mixed in alongside returning players, the Vols have spent the offseason learning how to function as a group, and Garrett Medenwald, Tennessees director of sports performance, has been part of shaping that process behind the scenes.
The next phase now shifts from training to live competition, with an exhibition against Duke on Oct. 20 offering the first real look at how the pieces fit together. After that, the Vols will turn quickly to the opener at home against Wofford on Nov. 3, a game that will begin answering the bigger question surrounding this new-look roster: how fast can it turn offseason work into something ready for the season that follows? [Read more 🡒]
Kim Caldwells New Lady Vols Core Has One Big Summer Question
Kim Caldwell is spending the summer building out a fresh Lady Vols roster, and the early work is already centered on chemistry, conditioning and figuring out what this new 15-player group can become. Caldwell met with reporters alongside Kaylene Smikle, Fatmata Janneh and Jada Eads, giving a first real look at how Tennessee is approaching practices and how the staff is trying to blend newcomers with returning pieces in the months before the season.
The biggest storyline around that group is less about talent than availability, because several of the players helping form the new core are working back from injury interruptions that shaped their recent pasts. Smikle, Janneh and Eads all bring different kinds of promise, but the question around Tennessee this summer is how quickly that promise can translate into a functioning rotation once everyone is back on the floor and the roster starts to take on a clearer identity. [Read more 🡒]