Tennessee’s first loss of 2026 knocked the Vols off the unbeaten track, but ESPN’s updated Football Power Index still likes what it sees in Knoxville.
After the 20-17 defeat to No. 1 Texas, Tennessee checks in at No. 11 in the latest FPI, a jump of five spots from its preseason No. 16 ranking and seven spots from where it sat after Week 1.
The model has also nudged the Vols’ projected win total up to 8.1, a full game better than it was three weeks ago, and Tennessee’s playoff odds now sit at 22.5%. With eight games still left, the path ahead remains very much alive.
ESPN describes the metric this way: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
The schedule ahead is not a monster by the numbers, either. Tennessee’s remaining slate ranks 21st in FPI strength of schedule, and the first hurdle comes Saturday when Auburn visits Neyland Stadium.
The Vols are given a 71.0% chance to beat the Tigers, who come in at No. 24 in the opponent FPI. Auburn is 3-1 under former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh and has already survived a pair of one-possession games, edging Baylor 17-16 in Atlanta and Vanderbilt 21-15 last week.
If the Tigers are going to pull the upset as a touchdown underdog, they’ll need their defense to hold firm. In 28 games under coordinator DJ Durkin, Auburn has given up 21 points per game, along with the second-fewest yards per carry in the SEC at 3.0 and the second-fewest total rushing yards at 3,113.
After Auburn, Tennessee heads to Arkansas on October 10 with an 84.4% win chance. The Razorbacks are No. 60 in the opponent FPI and are coming off a 12-game losing streak to FBS teams before beating Tulsa last week.
That win followed blowout losses at Utah, 43-10, and against Georgia, 45-17. Arkansas also has a 12-game SEC losing streak to break before the Vols arrive in Fayetteville, where Tennessee has had its own issues in multiple sports.
The Vols lost there two seasons ago as a heavy favorite, and the FPI still expects them to avoid a repeat against the lowest-rated team in the league.
The toughest assignment on the board is the October 17 home date with Alabama, where Tennessee’s win probability drops to 36.9%. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 and sit at No. 6 in the opponent rankings, fueled by the No. 4 scoring offense in the FBS.
First-year starting quarterback Keelon Russell has thrown for 1,129 yards and accounted for 11 total touchdowns. Alabama’s next three games are at Mississippi State, home against Georgia and then against Tennessee in the Third Saturday in October, and the Tide have already lost in their last two trips to Neyland Stadium, in 2022 and 2024.
The following week, Tennessee goes to South Carolina with a 65.5% chance to win. The Gamecocks are No. 33 in the opponent FPI and have stumbled badly after losses to Mississippi State at home and Alabama on the road.
South Carolina has allowed 41 and 49 points in its first two SEC games, LaNorris Sellers has continued to struggle, and star edge rusher Dylan Stewart was suspended after his actions in Tuscaloosa. The Gamecocks face Kentucky this week, then travel to Florida before their open date and the Tennessee game.
Tennessee’s first November game brings Kentucky to Neyland Stadium on November 7, and the Vols are projected to win that one 79.0% of the time. Kentucky is No. 36 in the opponent FPI and just pulled off a major turnaround, bouncing back from a rough second half against Alabama to beat Texas A&M in College Station.
First-year coach Will Stein got a marquee top-10 road win three games into his tenure, and the Wildcats are ranked for the first time since midway through the 2023 season. Tennessee and Kentucky both have open dates before their annual border rivalry is renewed.
The final two games on the model’s list are the most uncertain. Tennessee is given a 51.4% chance at Texas A&M on November 14, with the Aggies ranked No.
- Texas A&M has had a rough September, falling to 2-2 after losses to Kentucky and LSU.
The Aggies were down 28-7 to Kentucky in the third quarter at Kyle Field and were outgained by more than 300 yards in Baton Rouge. The offense under a new coordinator has struggled, and quarterback Marcel Reed has two sub-200-yard passing games and four interceptions against Texas A&M’s three Power 4 opponents.
Then comes LSU on November 21 in Neyland Stadium, where Tennessee is given a 45.4% chance to win against the No. 8 team in the opponent FPI. LSU opened the season by hammering Clemson, then lost 32-24 at Ole Miss in what was described as perhaps the best game of the season so far. The Tigers answered by beating Texas A&M and avenging last year’s loss to the Aggies, but a difficult stretch still waits with road games at Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee, plus home dates against Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas.
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