Tennessee enters the preseason with a clear picture of where it stands in the College Football Playoff race, and ESPN’s Football Power Index puts the Vols right in the middle of the SEC pack.
The number for Tennessee is 20.4%, which gives Josh Heupel’s team the 19th-best playoff odds in the country. That places the Vols just behind Penn State at 22% and just ahead of SMU at 18%. Within the SEC, Tennessee checks in eighth, behind Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Ole Miss.
That SEC hierarchy is a steep one at the top. ESPN’s data gives Texas the best chance in the league at 70.2%, followed by Georgia at 63.9%. Alabama sits at 41.4%, LSU at 39.5%, Texas A&M at 38.8%, Oklahoma at 28.2%, Ole Miss at 22.5% and Tennessee at 20.4%.
Below the Vols, the rest of the conference trails off quickly: Florida at 15.1%, Missouri at 12.4%, Auburn at 12.0%, South Carolina at 10.8%, Vanderbilt at 6.8%, Kentucky at 2.2%, Arkansas at 1.7% and Mississippi State at 1.7%.
The list also says plenty about Tennessee’s schedule. Under the new nine-game SEC setup, the Vols are set to face Texas, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. In CFP-projection terms, that means Tennessee is lined up against four of the top five teams in the conference and five of the bottom six.
There are a couple of other takeaways buried in the numbers. Vanderbilt and Kentucky, two of Tennessee’s annual rivals, are both near the bottom of the SEC playoff projections. The model is also not especially bullish on Kentucky’s first season under new head coach Will Stein, and it does not expect Vanderbilt to come close to the 10-3 mark it posted last season.
Among the new SEC coaches, Florida’s Jon Sumrall is the highest-ranked on the list, excluding Lane Kiffin, who moved from Ole Miss to LSU. Sumrall arrived in Gainesville after leading Tulane to a spot in the College Football Playoffs last season. Auburn’s Alex Golesh is two spots behind him; Golesh previously served as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in 2021 and 2022, Josh Heupel’s first two seasons on Rocky Top.
Tennessee has reached the CFP once in Heupel’s five years, doing so in 2024 as the 9-seed before losing to eventual national champion Ohio State in the first round. With the preseason now drawing closer, the Vols are again in the conversation - just not near the top of it.
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