Tennessee’s 2026 schedule already has ESPN’s Football Power Index leaning in one direction: the Vols should be favored in eight of their 12 games, according to the updated projections.
That doesn’t mean the path is clean. Josh Heupel’s team is staring at a schedule that mixes the expected non-conference openers with a brutal run through the SEC, and the early road trip to Georgia Tech stands out as one of the first real tests.
FPI gives Tennessee a 99.5% chance to beat Furman in the opener on Sept. 5, then a 74.3% chance to win at Georgia Tech on Sept. 12.
The next week brings Kennesaw State to Knoxville, with the model putting the Vols at 96.2% to win on Sept. 19.
After that, the gauntlet starts to show its teeth. Texas visits on Sept. 26, and ESPN’s projection gives Tennessee just a 24.5% chance in that one. Auburn comes next on Oct. 3, where the Vols are favored at 65.3%, followed by Arkansas on Oct. 10 at 73.5%.
The middle of October brings another major hurdle with Alabama on Oct. 17. Tennessee is listed at 40.9% to win that game, then gets South Carolina on Oct. 24 in what FPI sees as nearly even, giving the Vols a 50.6% chance.
After a break, Tennessee returns to face Kentucky on Nov. 7, and that one is one of the more comfortable spots on the schedule at 80.8%. But the closing stretch is still demanding, with Texas A&M on Nov. 14 at 28.0%, LSU on Nov. 21 at 42.1%, and Vanderbilt on Nov. 28 at 62.4%.
All told, FPI projects Tennessee to average 7.38 wins over the 12-game slate. The Vols are scheduled to open the 2026 season at home against Furman on Saturday, Sept. 5.
In Other News...
Vanderbilt Just Added Intrigue To Tennessees Future QB Showdown
The first quarterback decision of the season already added an extra layer to Tennessees long-term conversation under center, with true freshman Faizon Brandon named the starter for the opener. Across the border in Nashville, Vanderbilt followed with its own call, going with Blaze Berlowitz over five-star freshman Jared Curtis for its first game, even as Curtis is expected to see the field against Austin Peay.
Jared Curtis is the name that makes this more interesting for Tennessee fans, because the buzz around a future matchup now has a clearer shape. If the two programs get the chance to put their young quarterbacks on the same stage later in the season, it would turn a routine SEC meeting into a useful early snapshot of where both passing games are headed. [Read more 🡒]
Peyton Manning And The Vols Honor A Tennessee Icon After Heartbreaking Loss
The loss of Dolly Parton sent a wave of grief through Tennessee, and the reaction from Peyton Manning and the Volunteers showed just how deeply she mattered to the state. The former Tennessee quarterback and the universitys athletic department both honored the country music legend with public tributes, recognizing not only her towering career but also the bond she always shared with her home state.
Parton was more than an icon on the music side of Tennessee life, and the tributes reflected that broader impact. Her music, charity work and unmistakable presence made her a beloved figure well beyond Knoxville, which is why the Vols response landed as part remembrance, part thank you to a woman whose legacy stretched far past the stage. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee Is Suddenly In The Mix For A Major Recruiting Shocker
Five-star defensive line prospect DJ Jacobs is still very much on Tennessees board, even with Ohio State holding his current commitment. The Vols have not backed off in the race for the prized recruit, with Josh Heupel and defensive line coach Rodney Garner continuing to push hard as the Early Signing Period approaches in December.
Miami is in the fight too, and Mario Cristobal has been aggressive in keeping Jacobs engaged as the recruiting battle unfolds. Jacobs is also expected to make multiple trips back to Ohio State, but Tennessee is hoping to get him on campus as well, since a visit to Knoxville could become a major factor in where this recruitment ultimately lands. [Read more 🡒]