Tennessee’s 2026 season already has the feel of a hinge point. After posting its fewest wins in 2025 since Josh Heupel’s first year, the Volunteers made some clear moves to reset the roster, and the result is a team with a pretty wide range of possible outcomes.
The biggest changes came on defense. Tennessee added defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and brought in 12 defenders through the transfer portal. On the other side of the ball, there’s more continuity: five of the six primary offensive linemen from 2025 are back, along with wide receivers Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley and running back DeSean Bishop.
And yet the whole thing may come down to one spot. Quarterback is still the great unknown, with George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon competing for the job. Both were top recruits, but neither has much experience, and that matters when the schedule includes a brutal 10-game SEC slate.
That’s why the ceiling and floor feel so far apart.
The best-case path looks like a 10-2 season and a College Football Playoff appearance. That’s the absolute ceiling, and it starts with one of the two quarterbacks becoming an immediate star. If MacIntyre or Brandon can settle in quickly and play at a high level right away, Tennessee would have a chance to cover up a lot of issues.
But quarterback play alone wouldn’t be enough. Knowles’ defense would have to be elite too, and there are reasons to think that part could hold up.
The linebacker group is the obvious strength, with Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander back and Amare Campbell arriving from the portal. Tennessee also takes a hit with Chaz Coleman not being on the team, but Jordan Norman is another transfer the Vols can feel good about.
If the defense cuts down on big plays and the quarterback situation clicks, 10-2 is on the table.
The other end of the spectrum is a 5-7 finish, and that would bring plenty of heat with it. Tennessee has not fallen below seven wins under Heupel, and this roster has more talent than the 2021 team that won seven games.
Still, the schedule is a major obstacle. The SEC is expected to have 10 teams ranked in the top 20, which means there won’t be many easy weeks anywhere.
In that worst-case version of 2026, Tennessee slips against Georgia Tech and also drops games to Texas, Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M and LSU. That would point to a quarterback who was overwhelmed and a defense that spent too much time on the field to be the kind of unit Tennessee needs it to be.
That’s not the projection. But it is the floor.
In Other News...
Why Tennessee's Buzzed About EDGE Never Found His Footing
Chaz Colemans Tennessee stint never really got a chance to settle in. The former Penn State EDGE rusher arrived with some buzz, but his time in Knoxville was defined by missed spring and summer work, with head coach Josh Heupel acknowledging there were off-field matters he had to navigate as well. For a player brought in to add help on the edge, the bigger story became whether he could get himself right enough to consistently be part of the programs day-to-day.
Instead, the concerns kept stacking up on both the personal and physical sides, and Tennessees staff saw enough to move on. Colemans situation had already been trending in the wrong direction for a while, with questions around his ability to handle team responsibilities and stay engaged through the grind of the offseason. For the Vols, it leaves another reminder that roster building is about more than talent, especially when a player never gets past the part where he is trying to find his footing. [Read more 🡒]
These 3 Vols Could Decide How Tennessee's 2026 Offense Holds Up
Tennessees offense enters 2026 with plenty to sort out, and the biggest question starts at quarterback after Joey Aguilar. George MacIntyre, Faizon Brandon and Ryan Staub are all in the mix, but the ripple effects go well beyond that competition. The Vols also need left tackle David Sanders Jr. to stabilize a line that will be protecting a new starter, while Ethan Davis is positioned to become an even more important piece in the passing game as Tennessee looks for reliable answers around him.
The backfield carries its own pressure points, because DeSean Bishop is coming off a huge season and the Vols do not have the same kind of established depth behind him. Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas are gone, leaving Tennessee to lean on unproven options such as Daune Morris, Justin Baker and Tulane transfer Javin Baker. If the quarterback race is the headline, the health of the offense may end up depending just as much on whether Bishop can keep producing and whether the supporting cast around him is ready sooner rather than later. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee Suddenly Has One Huge Pass Rush Question Before Week 1
Tennessees pass rush is suddenly under a spotlight, and the concern is less about finding one starter than figuring out who else can hold up once the season begins in two months. Jordan Norman is the expected answer off the edge, but the Vols are working with limited proven depth behind him, which makes the entire position group one of the more important camp storylines for Josh Heupel and Jim Knowles.
Freshmen TJ White and Zach Groves are among the names coaches will be watching closely as they search for help, but the bigger issue is whether enough players can develop quickly enough to keep the defense from feeling thin. With so little established production behind Norman, Tennessee does not have much margin for error if injuries or inconsistency show up early. [Read more 🡒]