Tennessee’s fast start has the Vols climbing in ESPN’s latest numbers, and the early picture after Week 2 looks a little brighter than it did in the preseason.
After beating Furman 56-9 in Week 1 and rolling past Georgia Tech 45-24 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday, Tennessee is 2-0 heading into the rest of the 2026 season. Those two wins have already shifted the projections in the Vols’ favor.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor now gives Tennessee a 97.8% chance against Kennesaw State on Sept. 19 in Knoxville. The rest of the schedule has a mix of strong odds and real hurdles, starting with a Sept. 26 home date against Texas, where Tennessee is given a 23.6% chance. The Vols then get Auburn at home on Oct. 3 with a 66.6% chance, followed by a road trip to Arkansas on Oct. 10, where the number jumps to 89.3%.
The middle stretch gets tougher. Tennessee has a 40.0% chance against Alabama in Knoxville on Oct. 17, then a 50.0% chance at South Carolina on Oct.
- After an open date on Oct. 31, the Vols return home to face Kentucky on Nov. 7 with an 87.3% chance, then head to Texas A&M on Nov. 14 where ESPN gives them a 27.4% chance.
LSU comes to Knoxville on Nov. 21 with Tennessee at 42.9%, and the regular season closes at Vanderbilt on Nov. 28 with a 75.5% chance.
On the broader projection side, Tennessee moved up seven spots to No. 11 in ESPN’s FPI rankings after Week 2. The Vols are now projected to finish 8.0-4.1 in the regular season, up from a preseason mark of 7.3-4.7.
The model also gives Tennessee a 93.5% chance to win at least six games, a 3% chance to win the SEC, a 26.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 1.1% chance to win a national title.
As for the schedule difficulty, Tennessee sits at No. 72 nationally in strength of schedule and No. 14 in remaining strength of schedule. The Vols are also No. 6 nationally in game control and No. 11 in strength of record, which measures the likelihood that an average top 25 team would have produced the same record or better given the same schedule.
In Other News...
Tennessee Looked Dominant But One Problem Kept This Win From Feeling Complete
Tennessee handled Georgia Tech 45-24, and the final score fit the way the Volunteers controlled much of the night. The running backs brought the kind of downhill punch that kept the offense on schedule, Faizon Brandon looked composed at quarterback, and the defense did enough to tilt the game in Tennessees favor with sacks and interceptions that repeatedly stalled Yellow Jackets drives.
Still, the performance never felt fully polished. The offensive line had stretches that were solid but not spotless, and special teams introduced enough mistakes to keep the win from feeling as clean as the margin suggested. Even with the lopsided result, the penalties and kicking-game issues left Tennessee with a clear next step before this team can call a strong outing complete. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee's Kennesaw State Game Has A Knoxville Twist Fans Will Notice
No. 14 Tennessees Week 3 date with Kennesaw State at Neyland Stadium brings the kind of nonconference matchup the Vols are expected to handle, but there is a little Knoxville flavor baked into it. The game will air on SEC Network and will be the first meeting between the programs, yet the Owls will arrive with a familiar name on the roster in redshirt freshman kicker Daniel Kinney, a former Bearden High School athlete.
Kinney has already gotten into games for Kennesaw State and handled himself well on field goals and extra points, which gives this trip a touch more local interest than your typical early-season tuneup. For Tennessee fans, it adds one more storyline to a game that otherwise should be about the Vols doing what ranked teams are supposed to do, even if one nearby face gives the crowd something extra to track. [Read more 🡒]
Which Former Vol Delivered Week 1s Biggest NFL Moment
Opening week of the 2026 NFL season offered plenty for Tennessee fans to track, with a handful of former Vols turning in notable showings around the league. Josh Palmer delivered the biggest headline, hauling in a game-winning touchdown for the Buffalo Bills, while Trey Smith and Darnell Wright each started and played every offensive snap for their teams. A broader roundup of Tennessee alumni also included several players making their NFL debuts or getting on the field in game action.
For a program that routinely sends talent into the league, the first weekend served as another reminder of how wide the Volunteer footprint can stretch once the season begins. Some names flashed in the spotlight right away, others quietly handled full workloads up front, and a few were just taking their first steps as pros. The full list of contributions was long enough to fill out a useful early-season snapshot, even if the most memorable moment belonged to Palmer. [Read more 🡒]