Despite a hard-fought 74-71 loss at Kentucky over the weekend, Tennessee basketball is still holding strong in the eyes of bracketologists. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has the Vols slotted as a No. 5 seed in the South Region for the 2026 NCAA Tournament - a sign that the committee still sees this team as a legitimate threat come March.
If Lunardi’s projections hold, Tennessee would open the tournament in Portland, Ore., facing off against 12-seed Stephen F. Austin in the Round of 64.
That’s the kind of matchup that always raises eyebrows - a 5-vs-12 game that has historically produced its fair share of upsets. But should the Vols take care of business, they’d be looking at a second-round clash with either 4-seed Virginia or 13-seed UNC Wilmington.
Both of those programs bring different challenges, but Tennessee’s physicality and defensive identity could give them an edge.
The Vols are one of nine SEC teams projected to make the Big Dance, according to Lunardi’s latest bracket. That’s a deep showing for the conference, which has flexed its muscle all season.
Florida leads the SEC pack as a projected 3-seed, while Vanderbilt and Alabama join Tennessee on the 5-line. Arkansas (6), Kentucky (7), Texas A&M (8), Auburn (8), and Texas (11) round out the SEC’s projected tournament field.
Texas, notably, is hanging on as one of the “last four in,” while Missouri is just outside the bubble as one of the “next four out.”
CBS Sports, on the other hand, wasn’t quite as forgiving after Tennessee’s slip-up in Lexington. Their latest bracket dropped the Vols to a 7-seed, placing them in the Midwest Region with a first-round matchup against 10-seed UCLA.
That’s a tough draw - the Bruins are no strangers to March magic. A win there would likely set up a showdown with 2-seed Iowa State or 15-seed Wright State.
For Tennessee, though, the bigger picture is still very much intact. The program is chasing its eighth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance this March - a streak that now stands as the longest in school history, surpassing Bruce Pearl’s six-year run from 2006 to 2011.
Nationally, the Vols’ streak ties them with Houston and Kansas (due to a vacated appearance) for the fourth-longest active streak in college basketball. Only Michigan State (27), Gonzaga (26), and Purdue (10) have longer active runs.
Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee has become a consistent tournament presence - and a dangerous one at that. The Vols have reached the Sweet 16 four times during their current streak (2018, 2023, 2024, 2025) and made back-to-back Elite Eight appearances in 2024 and 2025. That kind of postseason consistency is rare, and it’s come with strong seeding: Tennessee has earned a top-five seed in all seven of its tournament appearances under Barnes, including No. 2 seeds in each of the past two seasons.
Overall, Barnes is 12-7 in NCAA Tournament play during his 11 years in Knoxville - a mark that reflects both longevity and a growing postseason pedigree.
Next up, Tennessee hits the road again, traveling to Starkville for a Wednesday night matchup against Mississippi State. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m.
ET on ESPN2. That game wraps up a two-game road swing, with the Vols returning to Thompson-Boling Arena next Saturday to host LSU.
With March creeping closer, every possession starts to matter just a little more. Tennessee’s résumé is still solid, but the margin for error is shrinking. The road to Selection Sunday is officially heating up.