Arch Manning arrived at Texas this season with the kind of draft buzz that puts a quarterback under a microscope before the first snap is even taken. But four games in, that QB1 chatter has cooled, and the latest rankings from ESPN’s Jordan Reid show just how far things have shifted.
Reid slotted Manning as his QB4 in an updated big board released Thursday, placing him behind Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss, Darian Mensah of Miami and Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State. Manning checked in at No. 17 overall in Reid’s pool of 50 players.
The appeal is still obvious. Reid pointed to Manning’s size - 6-foot-4, 222 pounds - along with his arm strength and mobility. The issue, though, is that the Texas quarterback still has work to do when the picture gets complicated.
"Manning is still only at his best with concepts that allow him to execute simple reads," wrote Reid. "When trying to make full-field progressions, he can hold onto the ball too long. There are also too many moments when poor footwork and mechanics lead to scattershot ball placement."
That hesitation has shown up on the field, including in Texas’ 20-17 Week 4 win over Tennessee, when Manning was flagged for two illegal forward passes. The Longhorns are 4-0 and ranked No. 1, but the quarterback hasn’t consistently looked like the player many expected at the start of the year.
Still, the blame doesn’t land entirely on Manning. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and the offensive staff may not be putting him in the best position to play to his strengths.
One area stands out: the Longhorns are dialing back Manning’s run game this season in an effort to protect him. Pro Football Focus credited him with 48 designed runs and 32 scrambles last season.
This year, that number has dropped to 20 scrambles and just four designed runs. Designed runs are plays where the coach calls the quarterback’s number, while scrambles come when he takes off on his own.
That shift may be making Manning less comfortable, and that discomfort can ripple into everything else - from slow processing to missed reads. It could also help explain why the ball is coming out later. According to PFF, Manning is averaging 3.13 seconds to throw, up from 2.88 in 2025.
Texas may believe limiting his running lowers the injury risk. But the tradeoff is hard to ignore.
Manning has already taken 10 sacks in 2026, and his pressure-to-sack ratio sits at a troubling 23.3 percent. In 2025, he was sacked 22 times but posted a much stronger 13.3 percent pressure-to-sack ratio.
The old coaching line says quarterbacks need to stay in the pocket. The better version is more nuanced: they need to know when to stay and when to move, because holding the ball too long only invites more hits.
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix offers a clean example. Since 2024, he’s tied for third in the league in wins with 26, and he’s also been one of the league’s least-sacked quarterbacks. Nix is tied for ninth in pressure-to-sack ratio at 11.6 percent and finished second last season at 9.5 percent.
Texas has a bye week Saturday before meeting the 2-2 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas on Oct. 10, with ABC televising the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Over that break, the Longhorns have a chance to rethink how they use Manning - and maybe help him look like a top-tier quarterback prospect again.
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Tennessee May Need Its Ground Game More Than Ever Against Auburn
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If that happens, Tennessee may be able to lean into one of its clearer strengths. The Vols enter with the third-ranked rushing attack in the conference, while Auburn brings a ground game fueled by senior Jeremiah Cobb and quarterback Byrum Brown. In a game like this, whichever side stays committed on the ground may end up with the cleaner path to controlling the afternoon. [Read more 🡒]