Tennessee is back at the bye week with four regular-season games left, and the path ahead still leaves the playoff door cracked open. If the Vols win out, they’d likely land in the 12-team field as an at-large team.
That’s the simple version. The harder part is getting through the final stretch unbeaten. Tennessee still has Kentucky coming to Knoxville, a trip to Texas A&M, a home date with LSU and a road game at Vanderbilt.
Here’s how the rest of the season looks, game by game.
The first hurdle is Kentucky, and that one feels like the trickiest game left on the schedule. The Wildcats are 1-1- under Will Stein and have been solid offensively, with quarterback Kenny Minchey helping drive that success. Their only loss came against Alabama, when the game got away in the second half.
Still, Tennessee gets the edge in a tight one. Both teams are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to get ready, but that seems to favor Jim Knowles and the Vols’ defense.
If any unit in the conference is built to slow down Kentucky, it’s Tennessee’s. A strong day from DeSean Bishop and a defense that does enough should be enough for a close win.
The trip to Texas A&M is where things get sticky. Tennessee has struggled badly in road games under Josh Heupel, and the South Carolina loss was another reminder of how quickly the Vols can beat themselves away from home.
Texas A&M has had a rough year, and the atmosphere might not be especially intense by then, but Tennessee has found ways to shoot itself in the foot in much less threatening environments. It’s a game the Vols should win, but on the road, belief has to be earned.
Prediction: a loss.
That result would essentially knock Tennessee out of the playoff conversation. There would still be a path through chaos elsewhere in the SEC and around the country, but it would be a long shot.
LSU’s visit to Knoxville would still matter, though, because the Tigers could be fighting for their own playoff hopes as well. With games against Alabama and Texas both still on LSU’s home schedule, the Tigers could also be carrying at least three losses into that matchup.
Even with Lane Kiffin coming back to town, Tennessee should have plenty of juice left for that one. The crowd will be a factor, and the Vols should be motivated enough to avoid letting the season drift. With the pass rush able to get after the quarterback, this feels like a game where Sam Leavitt could give it away and Tennessee cashes in.
The finale at Vanderbilt looks like the easiest call of the bunch. It’s technically a road game, but not much of one.
When Tennessee comes to Nashville, the stadium is usually packed with orange, sometimes about 70%, if not more. Vanderbilt also appears to have fallen all the way back after its record year with Diego Pavia at quarterback in 2025.
There’s no worry here. Tennessee is better at just about every spot and should handle business comfortably.
Put it all together, and the Vols finish 9-3 with a 6-3 mark in SEC play. That would leave them in the mix with the better teams outside the playoff field, though a crowded 9-3 picture could keep them from the Citrus Bowl, which goes to the top SEC team left out of the playoff.
If that happens, the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl would make sense as a fallback, and a matchup with Virginia Tech would be the easy storyline to follow. James Franklin leads the Hokies, and he had Jim Knowles as his defensive coordinator last season at Penn State. Tennessee also has a trio of former Nittany Lions on defense.
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