Tennessee’s path through the SEC looks friendlier than most, at least if you buy one specific metric.
Using DraftKings’ conference win totals, ESPN’s Brandon Zimmerman put together a schedule-strength view that leans on projected SEC performance rather than the usual eye test. With every team in the league playing nine conference games, he then adjusted for the home-road split by adding a point for teams with five road games and subtracting a point for teams, like Tennessee, that get five at home.
That formula gives the Vols the easiest conference schedule in the SEC this season. Tennessee’s nine SEC opponents carry a combined over/under win total of 38.5, and after the home-field adjustment, the number drops to 37.5.
That just nudges Tennessee ahead of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt, who all land at 38.5 in the metric. On the other end, Kentucky checks in with the toughest SEC schedule, with its nine opponents projected for 43.5 combined wins.
The shape of Tennessee’s slate explains why the number comes out that way. The Vols do have some heavy hitters on the schedule, starting with Texas, which owns the best SEC win total on Tennessee’s schedule at 6.5.
Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU are next at 5.5 apiece, and Georgia is the only other SEC team with a 6.5 total. Ole Miss and Oklahoma also sit at 5.5.
But the back half of the conference schedule is where Tennessee gets a break. Arkansas, Mississippi State and Kentucky all have the lowest projected win total in the league at 2.5, and Tennessee plays both Arkansas and Kentucky. The Vols also draw all three teams at 3.5 - Auburn, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
In all, DraftKings’ projections have Tennessee facing five of the six worst teams in the SEC.
The Vols’ own conference outlook sits in the middle of the pack at 4.5 wins, the same number assigned to Florida and Missouri.
If Tennessee gets to the over, goes 5-3 in SEC play and stays perfect in nonconference games, that would add up to a 9-3 season. That probably wouldn’t be enough for a playoff spot, but it would set up some momentum heading into 2027.
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