Welcome to Week 8 of the college football season.
Here are five upset picks for the upcoming slate, with last week’s results still fresh in the rearview. The column cashed again thanks to outright wins by Florida (+355) and Washington (+156), marking a fourth straight week with at least two correct outright winners.
Duke over Virginia
Virginia is the kind of team I’m comfortable fading right now. This offense has struggled when Beau Pribula can’t run, and after getting banged up earlier this season, Pribula has a rushing success rate of under 43% this year.
That’s not enough. He isn’t a strong enough downfield passer to survive without the threat of his legs.
UVA sits 69th nationally in EPA-per-dropback, and I trust Duke more on both sides of the ball. Virginia’s homefield edge isn’t enough for me to buy the Cavaliers as a slight favorite here.
UCF over BYU
This is a brutal setup for BYU. The Cougars are coming off one of the biggest wins in school history and now have to travel cross-country to face UCF, a team that is coming off a bye.
The Golden Knights have already run into CFP contenders like Oklahoma State and Houston, so BYU’s talent level won’t surprise them. And with Arizona State and Utah waiting on deck, this has all the ingredients of a flat spot for the Cougars.
Kansas over Baylor
Baylor might be in quit watch after the way it dropped the rivalry game to TCU last weekend. DJ Lagway threw for 256 yards on 52 attempts, and his completion percentage over expected checked in at -14.3, one of the worst marks of any game this season given that volume.
Kansas is coming off a rivalry loss too, but the Jayhawks looked better than the final score suggested against Kansas State. At home, I’ll lean KU.
Tennessee over South Carolina
I’m a little uneasy backing Tennessee after an emotional win, especially with South Carolina coming off a bye. But the Vols are just too good for me to pass up here.
I think they’re a top 10 team and a real contender to win a game in the College Football Playoff if George MacIntyre keeps developing. Tennessee’s defense and running game should carry over just fine in Columbia.
Houston over Utah
Utah has been steamrolling teams, but the schedule hasn’t exactly been loaded. Here are the net success rate rankings for the FBS opponents the Utes have faced so far:
Arkansas: 118th
Utah State: 126th
Iowa State: 92nd
Kansas: 73rd
Colorado: 75th
Houston is a different animal. The Cougars rank 19th in net success rate, making them by far the best team Utah has faced this season. Houston has also already played three opponents ranked in the top 40 in net success rate, so this is not a group that’s been sheltered from strong competition.
In Other News...
Tennessees Defensive Turnaround Is Suddenly Paying Off With Elite Recruits
Tennessees defensive resurgence has started to show up in ways that reach beyond the scoreboard. After holding Alabama to 10 points and forcing four turnovers in a recent game, the Volunteers gave 2028 four-star cornerback Tyler Boyd plenty to notice during his visit, and the performance lined up with the kind of progress the new defensive staff under Jim Knowles has been working to build.
Boyd came away talking about those improvements, and his interest in Tennessee appears to have grown after seeing the unit in person. The Vols are keeping the pressure on the recruiting trail, too, with Derek Jones and Josh Heupel staying in regular contact as they try to keep Boyds attention moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessees Passing Game Has A Real Opening If The Vols Hold Up Front
South Carolina has given up plenty through the air in SEC play, and that creates a clear opening for Tennessee as it looks to get its passing game moving in the right direction. For the Vols, this is less about chasing a big number and more about taking what the defense has already shown on film, especially if the matchup lets Tennessee stay on schedule and avoid obvious passing downs.
The key, as always, starts up front. If Tennessee can hold up in pass protection, George MacIntyres reads should come easier, and the rest of the offense will have a chance to do its part as receivers and backs work into the right spots. The opportunity is there, but it only matters if the Vols can keep the pocket clean long enough to make South Carolina pay for what it has been giving up. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee Just Got More Doubt Ahead Of A Game Fans Fear Most
The build-up to Tennessees trip to Columbia already had enough edge, and now it has another layer after David Pollack went on record saying South Carolina will hand the No. 11 Volunteers a loss at Williams-Brice Stadium. The former Georgia standout and SEC analyst pointed to the Gamecocks running game and their physical style as the reasons he likes the home team, a view that fits the uneasy feeling around a matchup Tennessee fans have been circling for weeks.
It is not just one analyst pushing the upset angle, either. Fan reaction to Pollacks prediction has been lively, and the numbers around the game are hardly settling the debate, with betting odds leaning slightly toward South Carolina while ESPNs Football Power Index still gives Tennessee the edge. For a road game that already felt like a test of nerves, the competing signals only add to the sense that this one could go in either direction. [Read more 🡒]