Tennessee Basketball Facing Seeding Slide as March Looms
Tennessee basketball has made a habit of entering March Madness with a strong seed under Rick Barnes. Since he took over the program, the Vols have never been seeded lower than fifth in the NCAA Tournament. But with Selection Sunday creeping closer, that streak is now in real jeopardy.
According to ESPN’s latest bracket projections released on January 23, Joe Lunardi has Tennessee slotted as a No. 7 seed in the West Region. That’s a step back from the No. 6 seed they held earlier in the week-a drop triggered by their Jan. 17 home loss to Kentucky. The Vols haven’t had a chance to bounce back on the court since, with no midweek game before they head into a big road test at Alabama.
In Lunardi’s current projection, Tennessee would open the tournament against 10th-seeded Ohio State in Portland, Oregon. If they advance, they’d likely face No. 2 seed Gonzaga in the second round-assuming the Zags take care of business against 15-seed UT-Martin. That’s not exactly a smooth path to the Sweet 16.
The SEC, as a whole, is well-represented in Lunardi’s latest bracket, with nine teams projected to make the field. Florida and Vanderbilt are both sitting as No. 4 seeds, while Alabama and Arkansas are in at No.
- Tennessee is joined by Georgia and Kentucky on the No. 7 line, and Auburn and Texas A&M round things out as No. 9 seeds.
Texas just missed the cut as one of the “First Four Out,” while Missouri is still hanging around as a “Next Four Out” team.
CBS Sports is even less optimistic about the Vols’ tournament position. Their latest bracket has Tennessee dropping to a No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region, opening against No. 9-seed NC State.
That potential second-round matchup? A date with top-seeded Michigan-assuming the Wolverines avoid a first-round upset against Navy.
The broader bracket picture is tight at the top among the high-major conferences. As CBS notes, the Big Ten, ACC, and SEC are neck-and-neck, each with 10 projected bids heading into the weekend.
The Big 12 trails slightly with seven teams in the field, but it’s got serious firepower near the top. Six of those seven are seeded fifth or better, and teams like Oklahoma State and TCU are still fighting on the bubble.
Baylor and West Virginia are also in the mix for at-large bids.
Earlier this season, the SEC led all conferences with 11 teams in the projected field. But Texas’ recent back-to-back losses-first to Texas A&M, then to Kentucky-have pushed them into “First Four Out” territory ahead of a key game against Georgia.
For Tennessee, the stakes are high not just in terms of seeding, but legacy. The Vols are chasing their eighth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, which would extend the longest streak in program history. The current run of seven straight bids already broke Bruce Pearl’s six-year streak from 2006 to 2011.
Nationally, Tennessee’s streak is among the best in the country. They’re tied with Houston and Kansas (whose 2018 appearance was vacated) for the fourth-longest active run. Only Michigan State (27), Gonzaga (26), and Purdue (10) have longer current streaks.
And this recent run hasn’t just been about getting in. Under Barnes, Tennessee has made four Sweet 16 appearances-2018, 2023, 2024, and 2025-and two Elite Eight runs in the past two years.
They’ve consistently earned top-five seeds: No. 3 in 2018, No. 2 in 2019, No. 5 in 2021, No. 3 in 2022, No. 4 in 2023, and back-to-back No. 2 seeds in 2024 and 2025. That No. 2 seed mark ties their highest ever, matching 2019, 2008, and 2006.
But if the projections hold, Tennessee will be entering March in unfamiliar territory-outside the top five seeds, with a tougher road ahead. There’s still time to climb, but the Vols will need to take care of business down the stretch if they want to avoid a steeper hill come tournament time.