Tennessee heads into its 2026 season with a lot of moving parts and a lot of optimism, but the schedule is the kind that forces hard choices fast. After a playoff run two seasons ago and a 2025 finish that missed the mark - capped by a loss to Illinois in the Music City Bowl - the Volunteers are trying to get back on track with major changes across the roster and staff.
That uncertainty is exactly what made the Vols On SI staff split on where this team lands. The final predictions range from 8-4 to 9-3 to 7-5, and the same pressure points keep showing up: a young quarterback, a revamped defense, and a brutal slate that leaves little room for mistakes.
Caleb Sisk sees a Tennessee team with a real ceiling, but one that may still get clipped by the weight of its schedule and turnover on defense. He pointed to the Vols’ difficult path through the SEC and said he was stuck between 8-4 and 9-3, with Alabama serving as the swing game.
As he put it: "I do believe that this could be one of the best cases for the Tennessee Volunteers this season. The Vols don't play against a bunch of easy opponents; in fact, no one in the SEC does.
One could even argue that this schedule is among the toughest in the SEC. With nearly a completely new staff on the defensive side of the football, I was battling between 8-4 and 9-3.
The Alabama game is the one I was stuck on, but I do believe there is a path in which the Vols win that game. However, the safer option seems to be that the Vols will lose this game due to the complete overhaul they have had,"
Dale Dowden took a more cautious route, pointing to the growing pains that usually come with an inexperienced quarterback and a new defensive scheme. He said: "The Vols come into the 2026 season with an inexperienced QB and a new defensive scheme.
There will be growing pains as a young QB develops in real time, and there may be some busted defensive plays as things will still be new to some degree. I almost wanted to go 7-5, but in preseason you get torn with games that, in reality, if played right now would be 50/50.
So many things could go right, and those same scenarios could go wrong,"
Josh Greer highlighted the kinds of games that can define Tennessee’s season, especially with Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, and Alabama all looming. He noted that Texas is the more complete roster and said asking Brandon to win that matchup in his fourth collegiate start is a big ask, even in Neyland.
He also pointed to the trip to College Station and the uncertainty around the LSU and Alabama games. "Texas is simply the more complete roster entering the season, and asking Brandon to beat that caliber of team in his fourth collegiate start is a lot, even at Neyland.
Tennessee has to go to College Station, which is a tough environment with a loaded roster. I could easily flip a coin for the LSU and Alabama games.
I think Tennessee could split those two games, but they could also lose both. I really want to see how Brandon progresses during his rookie season.
The key to getting to 8 or 9 wins is avoiding the “what just happened?” loss that has hurt Tennessee in recent seasons,"
Major Passons sees a team with enough talent to matter, but not enough certainty to clear the toughest hurdles on the schedule. He said Tennessee has the tools to be elite, yet is more likely to end up as a good team fighting for one of the last playoff spots.
He also pointed to four top-13 teams in the current AP poll and predicted the Vols would drop three of those games while beating Alabama. "Tennessee has the tools to be an elite team, but I believe most likely they end up as a good team fighting for one of the last playoff spots.
Their schedule boasts 4 top 13 teams in the current AP poll; I think ultimately Tennessee falls short in three of those games only beating Alabama. I could see the season going numerous different ways and most of it hinges on how ready Faizon Brandon is for SEC football,"
Matt Schilling focused on the basics that often decide whether a young team survives a rough schedule. He said: "Freshman QB Faizon Brandon could have first-year struggles against some top tier teams.
The O-Line looks great, but they need to see strength as a unit early on. The WR corps is solid and could play a major offensive role.
The run game needs to show consistency. Time of possession and clock management will be key playing stronger schools,"
He also listed the losses as Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.
Eli Elrod’s read was similar in one key way: he thinks Tennessee’s offense will have a hard time matching the firepower and experience on the other sideline in several of the biggest games. He specifically named Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers, and Marcel Reed as players whose experience and big-play ability could be trouble for a young Vols offense, and he also pointed to the challenge of facing Alabama’s defense and the pressure that comes with that rivalry.
"I believe that the experience and big play ability of Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers, and Marcel Reed, will make it hard for a young Tennessee offense to keep up. I also think that a young Tennessee offense struggles against an extremely talented Alabama defense and the pressure of such a historic rivalry,"
Wesley Powell offered a more balanced view, emphasizing the talent Tennessee still has on offense while noting the questions that remain at quarterback. He said the Vols return a lot of major pieces on both sides of the ball, and that their skill talent can stack up with anyone.
Powell also said Faizon Brandon’s dual-threat ability could help the offense reach another level, though it may take a few games to get rolling. On defense, he pointed to the transfer additions of Amare Campbell, Qua Moss, and TJ Metcalf, along with Arion Carter as the leader of the unit.
"Tennessee returns a lot of big time players on both sides of the ball. Their offensive skill position players go toe-to-toe with any school in the country.
Obviously, a big question mark surrounds the quarterback position until we see more from Faizon, but I think his duel threat ability will help lead this Tennessee offense to new heights, it just might take few games to get going. As for the defense, Tennesse brought in a lot of transfers, and overall I do believe the defense is worse than the offense.
Still, the Vols have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, and Amare Campbell, Qua Moss, and TJ Metcalf are all great additions. Their secondary may be young, but they have a good amount of talent there.
And of course they have Arion Carter to be the leader of the defense,"
Tyler Miller’s prediction lined up with the same core idea: this schedule is tougher, and the four biggest names on it are the ones most likely to hand Tennessee losses. "I’m predicting this record because the teams on UT’s schedule this year are tougher than previous years.
Teams like LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Texas all have very good squads this year and match up better with UT than the opposite. These 4 teams are also who they lose to in my prediction,"
For Tennessee, the season outlook is clear enough. The talent is there, the questions are real, and the margin for error is thin. With a new quarterback, a reshaped defense, and a schedule loaded with heavy hitters, the Vols are heading into 2026 with plenty of confidence - and no easy answers.
In Other News...
Another Former Tennessee Defender Just Got Caught In NFL Roster Crunch
The NFL roster squeeze reached another former Tennessee defender this week, with Matthew Butler among the players let go as teams trimmed down ahead of the season deadline. Butler, who lined up on the defensive line for the Volunteers, had been with the Miami Dolphins before his release and now finds himself back on the market as clubs finalize their openings.
Butler joins a growing list of recent Vols to hit the same wall, alongside former Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar and tight end McCallan Castles, who were also cut by their teams. For Butler, the next step is simple but far from easy: catch on with another NFL opportunity and keep his career moving toward the 2026 season. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Dobbs Just Added To Tennessee's Quarterback Pride Story
Josh Dobbs keeps finding ways to stay in the mix at the pro level, and his latest outing for the Detroit Lions only adds to the long line of Tennessee quarterbacks making noise in the NFL. The former Vol was efficient, completing 15 of 19 passes for 128 yards and two touchdowns, the kind of showing that reinforces why teams keep trusting him in backup conversations.
For Tennessee fans, it also fits into a broader theme that has been building for a while. Joe Milton III, Hendon Hooker and Joey Aguilar are all in the hunt for backup jobs around the league, giving the program a steady stream of quarterbacks with real NFL relevance. Dobbs is now in position to back up Jared Goff, and it is another reminder that the Vols quarterback pipeline keeps reaching the league in meaningful ways. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessees New Defensive Front Has A Camp Name Fans Need To Know
Jim Knowles is putting his stamp on Tennessee football quickly, and part of that has been building a new look along the defensive front with transfer tackle Xavier Gilliam right in the middle of it. Gilliam followed Knowles from Penn State and has already drawn strong reviews throughout spring and fall camp, with coaches and teammates noticing both his play and the way he carries himself as the Vols shape their identity for the coming season.
For Tennessee, that matters because Knowles is arriving with fresh expectations and a roster in transition, and the defensive front will be one of the clearest indicators of how fast the new system takes hold. Gilliams emergence has added some early momentum to that process, and the attention he has earned suggests there may be more to this front than just a schematic change as camp gives way to game prep. [Read more 🡒]