ESPN is already sizing up the College Football Playoff field, and Tennessee has landed in the conversation.
Heather Dinich ranked the Volunteers 26th among 31 teams she believes can get into the 12-team playoff, while ESPN Analytics gives Tennessee a 20 percent shot. That puts the Vols in sleeper territory as the season approaches, even with a new freshman quarterback and plenty of turnover on defense.
“The computers give the Vols the 19th-best chance to make the CFP, and that is extremely generous for a team that won four league games last year and seems positioned for a middle-of-the-pack finish at best,” Dinich wrote.
The road ahead is part of why Tennessee is being taken seriously at all. The Vols are staring at a brutal SEC slate with games against Texas, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M, plus South Carolina, which ESPN slotted at No. 30 among the 31 teams in the mix. Tennessee is one of seven SEC teams ranked ahead of it, with Alabama (17), Oklahoma (12), LSU (10), Texas A&M (9), Ole Miss (8), Georgia (5) and Texas (1) all higher.
Dinich pointed to the strength of the schedule as the main reason the committee could keep Tennessee in the hunt.
“The schedule strength,” Dinich wrote of what the committee will like about the Volunteers. “Tennessee has the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
With that comes a little more grace in the committee meeting room. The Vols won’t necessarily be eliminated because of losses to Texas and Alabama because they can sway the committee members with wins against Texas A&M and LSU.
At no point in the second half of the season -- when the committee is watching most closely -- does Tennessee have back-to-back home games. The Vols will have to win on the road, and that’s a factor the committee also considers.”
Josh Heupel’s offense has earned enough trust that Tennessee can at least dream about making this work. If the Vols can be merely average on defense, that would already be a major step forward from last season and enough to keep the playoff path open.
The math is straightforward from there. Tennessee has to handle the games it should win - Furman, at Georgia Tech, Kennesaw State, Auburn, at Arkansas, at South Carolina, Kentucky and at Vanderbilt - and then split or better against Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. That sounds simple on paper, but several of those trips could be much tougher than they look, especially given Heupel’s road record in recent seasons.
For now, the biggest date on the calendar is September 12 in Atlanta. That’s when Tennessee will start answering real questions, and when fans should get their first true read on Faizon Brandon or George MacIntyre, with Brandon feeling like the likelier option at this point. After that, the Texas game should say plenty about whether this team is built to make a serious run.
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Kim Caldwells New Lady Vols Core Has One Big Summer Question
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The biggest storyline around that group is less about talent than availability, because several of the players helping form the new core are working back from injury interruptions that shaped their recent pasts. Smikle, Janneh and Eads all bring different kinds of promise, but the question around Tennessee this summer is how quickly that promise can translate into a functioning rotation once everyone is back on the floor and the roster starts to take on a clearer identity. [Read more 🡒]