Tennessee basketball has made a habit of showing up in March with a number next to its name - and under Rick Barnes, that number has never been higher than five. But if the Vols want to keep that streak alive, there’s still work to be done.
Their recent back-to-back road wins - a gritty, statement-making performance at Alabama followed by an overtime escape at Georgia - were exactly the kind of résumé boosters Tennessee needed. Those victories didn’t just steady the ship after a rocky stretch; they might’ve saved the Vols from slipping further down the bracket.
Right now, ESPN’s longtime bracket guru Joe Lunardi has Tennessee penciled in as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region - a slight bump from the No. 7 line they occupied before the Alabama win. According to his latest projections, the Vols would open the NCAA Tournament in Greenville, S.C., against 11-seed Miami (Ohio).
If they advance, a second-round clash with either No. 3-seed Purdue or No. 14 East Tennessee State could be waiting.
That’s not exactly a cakewalk, but it’s the kind of path that’s manageable if Tennessee continues to trend upward - and if their defense travels like it did last week.
Lunardi has 10 SEC teams in the field right now, a testament to the depth of the league this season. Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas join Tennessee in the projected bracket. Texas, notably, is clinging to one of the final at-large spots, while Missouri is just on the outside looking in.
CBS Sports is seeing things similarly. Their latest bracket also has Tennessee sitting as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest, holding steady even after the Georgia win. Like Lunardi, CBS projects the Vols to open against Miami (Ohio), with a potential second-round matchup against Vanderbilt or ETSU.
It’s a reminder that while the Vols are back on solid footing, there’s still a narrow margin between a favorable draw and a tougher road. Every game from here on out matters - not just for seeding, but for staying in the top half of the bracket altogether.
This year’s tournament appearance would mark Tennessee’s eighth straight trip to the Big Dance - the longest streak in program history, surpassing the six-year run under Bruce Pearl from 2006 to 2011. That run has put the Vols in elite company nationally.
Only Michigan State (27), Gonzaga (26), and Purdue (10) have longer active streaks. Tennessee is tied with Houston and Kansas (due to a vacated appearance) for the fourth-longest current streak.
Under Barnes, the Vols have made a habit of not just getting in, but getting seeded well. Every one of their seven tournament appearances under his watch has come with a top-five seed: No. 3 in 2018, No. 2 in 2019, No. 5 in 2021, No. 3 in 2022, No. 4 in 2023, and back-to-back No. 2 seeds in 2024 and 2025. That’s consistency at a high level - and it’s helped Tennessee reach four Sweet 16s (2018, 2023, 2024, 2025) and two Elite Eights (2024, 2025) during his tenure.
Barnes’ Vols are 12-7 in the NCAA Tournament over his 11 years on Rocky Top - a mark that reflects both the program’s growth and its potential ceiling in March.
Up next: a big one at home. Tennessee returns to Thompson-Boling Arena on Saturday night to host Auburn in its first home game since falling to Kentucky on Jan.
- Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m.
ET on ESPN, and it’ll be a reunion of sorts - Auburn assistant Steven Pearl, Bruce’s son and a former Vol, will be back in the building.
With the bracket picture still fluid and plenty of SEC battles ahead, this is the kind of game that could help Tennessee climb back into that top-five seed territory - or at the very least, keep them from slipping out of it.