Tennessee’s four-game win streak came to a halt Saturday night in Lexington, where the Vols fell to a surging Kentucky squad. But despite the stumble, the momentum Tennessee built over the past few weeks is still paying dividends - at least in the eyes of bracketologists.
According to the latest projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Vols are holding steady as a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament. That’s where they’ve been slotted in each of Lunardi’s last two updates, following key wins over Auburn and Ole Miss. The Kentucky loss didn’t knock them off that line, which speaks to the overall strength of their recent stretch.
In Lunardi’s Tuesday update, Tennessee lands in the South Region as the 5-seed, with a first-round matchup projected against 12-seed Stephen F. Austin.
If they advance, they’d face the winner of 4-seed Virginia vs. 13-seed UNC Wilmington. Those games are currently slated for Portland, Oregon - a long trip, but a manageable path if the Vols can maintain their recent form.
The South Region is shaping up to be a gauntlet. Top-seeded UConn leads the way, with Houston as the 2-seed and Purdue sitting at No.
- BYU checks in as the 6-seed, Texas as an 11, and the Vols aren’t the only SEC team in the mix.
In fact, the league is well-represented across Lunardi’s bracket.
Ten SEC teams make the field in the latest projections. Florida grabs a 3-seed, while Alabama and Vanderbilt join Tennessee on the 5-line.
Arkansas comes in as a 6-seed, Kentucky at 7, Texas A&M and Auburn both at 8, Georgia at 10, and Texas sneaks in as an 11-seed - one of the last four teams in. Georgia, meanwhile, is just clear of the First Four, making it in as one of the final teams to avoid the play-in round.
As for Tennessee’s seeding journey, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Back in January, after their first loss to Kentucky, the Vols dipped to a season-low 7-seed projection.
But they bounced back quickly with road wins at Alabama and Georgia, which bumped them up to the 6-line. The Auburn win pushed them to a 5-seed, and they’ve managed to stay there through the Ole Miss win and the most recent loss to Kentucky.
The only thing that’s changed has been the region they’re projected to play in.
Currently sitting at 16-7 overall and 6-4 in SEC play, Tennessee has a real opportunity to build on its resume over the next couple of weeks. The schedule ahead is favorable, with unranked opponents Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, and Missouri all on deck.
The only ranked matchups left in the regular season? A pair of games against in-state rival Vanderbilt - one later this month, and one to close out the regular season in March.
One of the biggest reasons for Tennessee’s recent surge has been the emergence of freshman wing Nate Ament. Over his last five games, Ament has been electric, averaging 25.4 points per contest and hitting a career-high 29 points twice - both times on the road, at Kentucky and Alabama. He hasn’t scored fewer than 17 points since January 6, a massive leap from the 11.1 points per game he averaged in the six games prior to that.
Tennessee travels to Starkville this Wednesday for a late-night SEC showdown with Mississippi State, tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET. With the Vols eyeing a stronger seed and a deep tournament run, every game from here on out carries weight - and with Ament heating up, they’ve got a difference-maker who could help carry them through the stretch.