After climbing the rankings with an impressive start to SEC play, the Lady Vols found themselves sitting pretty as a projected 3-seed in ESPN’s NCAA Tournament bracketology. But the climb hit a snag - and then a full-on stumble.
First came a surprising home loss to Mississippi State, which nudged Tennessee down to the 4-seed line. Then came Sunday’s road trip to UConn, where things unraveled fast. The Lady Vols went into halftime tied, but the second half turned into a runaway - a 30-point loss that raised serious questions about where this team is headed.
And yet, the bracketology outlook hasn’t shifted much - at least not yet. Despite the blowout in Storrs, Tennessee remains a 4-seed in ESPN’s latest projection.
That’s significant. A 4-seed means Knoxville would still host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, giving the Lady Vols a chance to regroup in front of their home crowd.
In that projection, Tennessee would open against 13-seed Murray State. Win that one, and the second-round matchup would be against the winner of 5-seed West Virginia and 12-seed Oregon State - a game that’s far from a gimme, but one Tennessee would expect to be competitive in.
But if the Lady Vols are eyeing a deep run, the road gets steep fast. A Sweet 16 appearance would likely mean a rematch with 1-seed UCLA - the same Bruins squad that handed Tennessee a 22-point loss back in November. That game wasn’t close, and a potential rematch would be a major measuring stick for how far the Lady Vols have come under Kim Caldwell.
Also looming in the region are 2-seed Vanderbilt and 3-seed Ohio State - both teams with the kind of talent and depth that can end a tournament run in a hurry. For Tennessee, the path to the Final Four is there, but it’s paved with elite competition.
Before any of that, though, there’s more SEC business to handle. The Lady Vols stay on the road this week, starting with a Thursday night matchup at Georgia.
Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on SECN+.
Then comes a heavyweight showdown on Sunday against South Carolina, one of the nation’s top teams. That one tips at 3 p.m.
ET and will air on ABC.
Caldwell knows the stretch ahead won’t be easy - and she’s not sugarcoating it.
“Yeah, it’s gonna be tough,” she said. “We gotta do it one game at a time.
I didn’t really love where this was at in our schedule, especially with that game being moved. But that’s what the SEC is.
You play - I think we only have two unranked games left on our schedule. And so, you have to do it one game at a time.
You can’t look big picture. You gotta do it scout-specific and chip away at it.”
That’s the mindset Tennessee will need to adopt if they want to steady the ship. The tournament projection might still be holding strong, but the next few games will go a long way in determining whether the Lady Vols are peaking at the right time - or heading into March looking for answers.