After a tough 43-point loss on the road to South Carolina - the largest margin of defeat in program history - the Tennessee Lady Vols have taken a hit in ESPN’s latest NCAA Tournament bracket projection. Once sitting in position for a 4-seed, Tennessee has now dropped to a projected 5-seed, a subtle shift on paper that could have significant implications come March.
Here’s why that matters: as a 4-seed, the Lady Vols would have been in line to host the opening rounds of the tournament at Thompson-Boling Arena. As a 5-seed, they’re now staring at a road trip to start their postseason run - a challenge that adds another layer to an already demanding tournament path.
In the current projection, Tennessee would open against 12-seed San Diego State. Win that one, and they’d likely face the winner of 4-seed TCU and 13-seed Louisiana Tech - all games played on TCU’s home floor. That’s a tough ask, especially for a team still trying to find consistency in its identity under second-year head coach Kim Caldwell.
It’s not unfamiliar territory - last year, the Lady Vols made a Sweet 16 run as a 5-seed. But repeating that feat without the cushion of home-court advantage will require sharper execution, stronger resolve, and a short memory after what just happened in Columbia.
Speaking of that game, Tennessee actually hung around early against the top-ranked Gamecocks before things unraveled fast. The second half turned into a runaway, with South Carolina pouring it on and Tennessee fading. Caldwell didn’t sugarcoat it afterward.
“We just had a lot of quit in us tonight,” she said. “That’s been consistent with our team - when we’re not comfortable and things don’t go our way, I have a team that’ll just quit on you.
And you can’t do that in big games. You can’t do that anytime in the SEC, but you certainly can’t do that at a program like this.”
It was a blunt assessment, but an honest one - and maybe a necessary one as the Lady Vols look to regroup.
The road ahead doesn’t get any easier. Should Tennessee navigate the early rounds and reach the Sweet 16 again, a rematch with 1-seed South Carolina could be waiting. Also looming in their projected region: 2-seed Vanderbilt and 3-seed Michigan State - two programs more than capable of derailing a tournament run.
But before the Lady Vols can think about March, they’ve got to bounce back in February. That starts Thursday, when they return to Knoxville to host Missouri - and it’s not just any game.
It marks the return of Kellie Harper, the former Lady Vols head coach and a championship-winning player under Pat Summitt. Harper, now leading the Tigers, will be back in Thompson-Boling for the first time since her dismissal.
Tipoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on SECN+, and it figures to be an emotional night - both for Harper and for a Tennessee team looking to reset its course. After three games away from home and a humbling loss to the SEC’s powerhouse, the Lady Vols need to show they can respond.
Because the postseason is coming fast. And if they want to make another deep run, they’ll need to find that edge - the one that’s defined this program for decades.