The Lady Vols hit a bump in the road Thursday night, falling 77-62 at home to Mississippi State - a loss that’s already shaking up their postseason outlook. ESPN's latest bracketology update from Charlie Creme reflects the fallout, with Tennessee sliding from a projected 3-seed to a 4-seed following the defeat.
Now, a 4-seed still comes with some perks. Most notably, it means Tennessee would host the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament if the current projections hold.
In that scenario, the Lady Vols would begin their tournament run at home against 13-seed Murray State. Win that, and they’d face the winner of a compelling 5-vs-12 matchup between Duke - coached by Lady Vol For Life Kara Lawson - and Green Bay.
But the road only gets steeper from there. A likely Sweet 16 showdown with top-seeded UConn looms on that side of the bracket.
And if Tennessee is eyeing a deeper run, they’ll potentially have to go through 2-seed Michigan and 3-seed TCU en route to the Final Four. That’s a tough draw, no matter how you slice it.
Zooming out, Tennessee remains part of a dominant SEC presence in the projected NCAA field. Eleven SEC teams are currently slotted into the bracket - second only to the Big Ten’s 12.
And here’s a stat that speaks volumes: the SEC has 10 teams ranked in the AP Top 25 right now, the most any conference has ever had at once in the poll’s history. This league isn’t just deep - it’s historic.
Of course, the Lady Vols can’t afford to dwell on bracket projections. A brutal stretch lies ahead, starting with one of the sport’s most iconic rivalries.
Tennessee heads north this Sunday to take on No. 1 UConn in a marquee matchup airing on FOX at noon ET.
It’s a chance for the Lady Vols, currently ranked No. 15, to make a statement on a national stage - and maybe recapture some momentum.
After that, the road doesn’t get any easier. Tennessee travels to Athens next Thursday to face No.
23 Georgia - though the Bulldogs just dropped a game to Alabama and could fall out of the rankings before tip-off. Then comes a showdown with powerhouse South Carolina, currently sitting at No. 3 in the country.
So yes, the loss to Mississippi State stings. But with opportunities ahead to notch statement wins and solidify their tournament resume, the Lady Vols still control their own narrative. The question now is how they’ll respond - and whether they can turn this midseason stumble into fuel for a postseason push.