The Lady Vols haven’t taken the court since the last ESPN Bracketology update, but that didn’t stop them from climbing the NCAA Tournament projections. Tennessee has now jumped up to a projected 3-seed, a significant move that could carry major implications come March.
Why does that matter? A 3-seed means home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
And in women’s college basketball, that’s no small thing. Seeds 1 through 4 get to host the opening weekend, and playing in front of a home crowd in Knoxville-where the Lady Vols have built a legacy of postseason success-can be a real difference-maker in reaching the Sweet 16.
According to the current bracket projection, Tennessee would open tournament play against 14-seed High Point. If they handle business there, they’d face the winner of a 6 vs. 11 matchup between Princeton and the Virginia Tech/Arizona State play-in. All of those games would be played at Thompson-Boling Arena, giving the Lady Vols a chance to ride the energy of Rocky Top into the second weekend.
From there, the road gets tougher. The Sweet 16 site?
Fort Worth, where Tennessee could run into 2-seed Louisville or 7-seed Georgia. And if the Lady Vols are aiming for a Final Four, they’ll likely have to go through a gauntlet that includes 1-seed Texas, 4-seed Ohio State, and 5-seed Ole Miss.
That’s a stacked region, but Tennessee’s recent form suggests they’re ready for the challenge.
Right now, the Lady Vols are sitting at 14-3 overall, and more importantly, 6-0 in SEC play-the only unbeaten team left in the conference. That puts them alone at the top of the SEC standings, a position that not only boosts their tournament résumé but also builds momentum inside the locker room.
“It definitely matters,” head coach Kim Caldwell said of the team’s hot start in conference play. “It worked out in our favor to where we could stack some games and build some confidence.
And I think that was big for us... we’re not really playing great at home. So, I don’t really want to jinx it as we go on the road, but you gotta beat the teams that you can beat and because it does only get harder and you try to get one that maybe you shouldn’t.”
Caldwell’s got a point. The Lady Vols haven’t even hit their ceiling yet, especially at home, and they’re still unbeaten in SEC play. That’s the kind of foundation that can carry a team deep into March.
Next up, Tennessee looks to push that conference record to 7-0 when they host Mississippi State on Thursday, Jan. 29.
Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on SECN+.
After that, it’s a quick shift to non-conference play with a marquee matchup at UConn on Feb. 1-a rivalry that always brings the spotlight.
Then it’s back into the SEC grind. Tennessee heads to Georgia on Feb. 5, before a massive road test against national powerhouse South Carolina on Feb. 8.
So while the bracket projections are just that-projections-there’s no denying the Lady Vols are in a strong position. They’ve got the record, the seeding momentum, and a schedule ahead that offers plenty of chances to prove they belong among the nation’s elite. If they keep stacking wins, Knoxville might just be the launching pad for something special this March.