The Lady Vols are heating up at just the right time-and the bracketologists are taking notice.
Tennessee, currently ranked No. 15 in the country, is riding a seven-game win streak that’s turned heads across the women’s college basketball landscape. That run includes back-to-back wins over ranked SEC opponents, and it’s not just momentum-it’s résumé-building. The Lady Vols are 14-3 overall and a perfect 6-0 in conference play, and they’re starting to look like a team no one will want to see come March.
Bracketology Boost: Tennessee Climbs the Seed Line
According to ESPN’s Charlie Creme, Tennessee has climbed to a No. 3 seed in Region 3 of the latest NCAA Tournament projections. That region is headlined by Texas as the No. 1 seed, but the Lady Vols are making a strong case to stay in the top 16 and host early-round games.
In Creme’s projection, Tennessee would face No. 14 seed High Point in the opening round. The winner of that game would take on either No. 6 seed Princeton or the winner of a First Four matchup between Virginia Tech and Arizona State, slotted as No. 11 seeds.
That’s a notable jump for Tennessee, which had been projected as a No. 4 seed in the previous two weeks. The difference? Two ranked wins in SEC play that gave the Lady Vols a meaningful bump in both perception and metrics.
Other bracket projections are also bullish on Tennessee, though not quite as high. USA TODAY’s latest bracketology, released just before the Lady Vols took down Kentucky, had them as the No. 14 overall seed-still a No.
- Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Jan. 23 projection slotted Tennessee as a No. 5 seed.
In that scenario, the Lady Vols would open against No. 12 seed Montana State in a pod hosted by No. 4 seed Duke, who would face No. 13 seed Ball State.
A Closer Look at Tennessee’s Tournament Résumé
Let’s talk substance. Tennessee’s tournament résumé is starting to take real shape.
The Lady Vols have two ranked wins-against Alabama and Kentucky-and both came during this current win streak. They’ve also taken some hits, but none that should raise red flags for the selection committee.
They lost to NC State early in the season when the Wolfpack were a top-10 team. While NC State has since slipped to 14-6 and out of the AP Top 25, they’re still sitting at No. 26 in the NCAA NET rankings-a metric the committee leans on heavily.
That keeps the loss from being damaging. The other two losses?
UCLA (No. 2 in the NET) and Louisville (No. 8).
In other words, Tennessee hasn’t dropped any games they weren’t expected to lose-and they’ve picked up a few that turned heads.
In terms of NET metrics, the Lady Vols are currently ranked No. 17.
They’re 4-3 in Quad 1 games-those high-level matchups that separate contenders from pretenders. Add in a 2-0 record in Quad 2 and a perfect 8-0 in Quad 4, and you’ve got a team with a clean résumé and a growing list of quality wins.
What’s Next for the Lady Vols
Tennessee has a chance to keep the momentum rolling with a home game against Mississippi State on Jan. 29.
That’s another opportunity to notch a win over a top-40 NET opponent-and it comes before a marquee road test against No. 1 UConn on Feb.
That UConn matchup is more than just a measuring stick-it’s a statement opportunity. A win there could vault Tennessee into the national conversation as a true Final Four threat. Even a strong showing could help solidify their standing as a top-four seed, which comes with the all-important hosting rights for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Right now, the Lady Vols are doing what good teams do in January: stacking wins, building a résumé, and finding their identity. If they keep this up, March could be a whole lot of fun in Knoxville.