The SEC media has Tennessee pegged eighth in the conference heading into the 2026 season, and that fits the bigger question hanging over Josh Heupel’s program: how often have the Vols actually landed where preseason expectations said they should?
Over Heupel’s first five seasons, Tennessee has spent a lot of time outperforming the early guesses - and a few times, it has come in right around them. The pattern says plenty about where this team has been, from the uncertainty of Heupel’s first year to the playoff push in 2024 and the middle-of-the-pack finish in 2025.
In 2025, the bar was already low after Iamaleava entered the transfer portal and Tennessee brought in Joey Aguilar in the spring. The media slotted the Vols ninth in the SEC, and they ended up 8-5 overall and 4-4 in league play, tied for eighth before tiebreakers dropped them to ninth.
The schedule split the season cleanly: three playoff teams and a Vanderbilt squad that just missed the playoffs on one side, and four opponents who didn’t even reach bowl season on the other. Tennessee handled the lower tier and lost to the higher one, which left the Vols looking exactly like what the record said they were.
The 2024 season told a different story. Tennessee was picked seventh in the SEC in the first year of the conference’s new 16-team setup, with Texas and Oklahoma joining and divisions gone.
With Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, the outside expectation was that the Vols would be good, not special. Instead, Tennessee went 10-3 overall and 6-2 in the SEC, tied for second in the league and officially third after tiebreakers.
The offense never fully solved its 2023 issues, but the defense was elite, and that carried Tennessee to another 10-2 regular season and a spot in the expanded College Football Playoffs.
The year before that, the projection had Tennessee second in the SEC East, and the media saw the Vols as Georgia’s main threat even after Hooker, Tillman and Jalin Hyatt left for the NFL Draft. Tennessee finished 9-4 overall and 4-4 in conference play, good for third in the division.
The offense clearly slipped, but the Vols stayed afloat with a revenge win over South Carolina and quality victories against Texas A&M and Kentucky. November, though, changed the tone fast, with losses to Georgia and Missouri knocking Tennessee down the standings.
In 2022, the preseason forecast was again second in the SEC East, even with Hendon Hooker and Cedric Tillman back after their strong 2021 seasons. Kentucky was still viewed as Georgia’s biggest challenger, but Tennessee built on Heupel’s first year and opened 5-0.
By November, the Vols were in Athens with a shot at the SEC Championship. Georgia, the future national champions, beat Tennessee badly, and a loss at South Carolina two weeks later took some shine off the finish.
Still, the Vols ended up 11-2 overall and 6-2 in the SEC, finishing third in the division.
Heupel’s first season in 2021 started with the lowest expectations of the bunch. Tennessee was picked fifth in the SEC East after major transfer-portal departures and an ongoing NCAA investigation.
The Vols finished 7-6 overall and 4-4 in league play, placing third in the division. Heupel’s up-tempo offense immediately caused problems for defenses, and Tennessee went .500 in SEC play with all four conference wins coming against divisional opponents: Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
That track record is part of the backdrop now as Tennessee heads toward 2026 with a nine-game SEC schedule for the first time ever. There’s a lot to like, especially with several offensive stars back, but the questions are obvious too, most notably at quarterback and along the defensive line.
The preseason number is eighth. Under Heupel, Tennessee has already shown it can beat that kind of expectation.
In Other News...
How Nico Iamaleavas New Reality Is Being Viewed Nationally
Nico Iamaleavas move from Tennessee to UCLA already made him one of the more closely watched quarterbacks in the sport, and his first season in Los Angeles gave the Bruins enough reason to keep building around him. He arrives in 2026 with a new head coach in Bob Chesney and a national perception that still lags behind the talent profile, even after a year in which he showed he could handle the job as a former No. 2 overall recruit.
The bigger question now is how much the Bruins can close that gap in a Big Ten race that does not appear eager to give them much benefit of the doubt. UCLA was slotted 13th in the conference preseason media poll, which says plenty about the skepticism around the program and the pressure on Iamaleava to turn promise into something sturdier. For Tennessee fans still tracking the quarterback they once built around, the next chapter is less about the transfer itself and more about whether the version of Iamaleava they saw in Knoxville can finally become the one that changes a teams standing. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee Just Gave Nate Ament The Farewell Vols Fans Needed
Nate Aments lone season at Tennessee ended with the kind of production and postseason impact that made him impossible to forget. The freshman forward averaged 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists while playing through injury, and he became a key piece in another deep March run as the Vols reached the Elite Eight.
Tennessee Athletics has now given fans a fitting final look at that season with a 14-minute feature that includes interviews with Ament, Rick Barnes and assistant coaches. For a player who carried so much of the load while hurting late in the year, it serves as a reminder of how quickly he mattered in Knoxville, and how much of his story still feels tied to what came next. [Read more 🡒]
Rick Barnes Gave Tennessee Freshman A Welcome To College Moment
Marquis Clark did not need long to find out what Tennessee basketball asks of freshmen in the summer. The Vols guard described his first real "welcome to college" moment as a conditioning lesson under Rick Barnes, one that came in the middle of practice and left no doubt about the standard in the program. For a young player trying to earn his place, it was the kind of introduction that can sting in the moment but also makes the point clear: nothing is handed out in Knoxville.
Clark said he appreciates being coached hard, and that fits the way Barnes has built Tennessee into a program that develops players for the next level. The Vols have had a steady presence in NBA Summer League and have produced draft picks year after year, which gives the grind a bigger purpose for freshmen learning what it takes. For Clark, the challenge was immediate, and the message was even clearer. [Read more 🡒]