One week into the season, Josh Heupel’s name is already sitting on a live market with real money behind it.
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market, is asking traders which FBS head coaches will be out of their current jobs before February 1, 2027, and Tennessee’s coach is priced at 14% to be gone before next February. That works out to about one in seven, which is hardly a full-blown panic signal - but it’s not the kind of number that gets ignored, either.
Heupel’s price puts him in the middle of the SEC field, tied with Kalen DeBoer at Alabama, Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri and Pete Golding at Ole Miss. He’s also just behind Steve Sarkisian at Texas, who sits at 16%. On Kalshi, the “yes” side for Heupel is trading at 15¢, so a bettor backing a Tennessee coaching change would stand to collect $1 for every 15¢ risked if he’s out by February 1.
The market is basically saying Heupel has a résumé that’s solid, not bulletproof, and that a rough stretch this fall could move the number fast. He’s priced above Kirby Smart at Georgia, who is at 10%, above Lane Kiffin at LSU at 13%, and well above Mike Elko at Texas A&M, who is down at 6%.
Here’s how the SEC board looks on Kalshi, from most likely to be out before February 1, 2027 to least likely:
Brent Venables, Oklahoma - 20%
Steve Sarkisian, Texas - 16%
Josh Heupel, Tennessee - 14%
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama - 14%
Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri - 14%
Pete Golding, Ole Miss - 14%
Lane Kiffin, LSU - 13%
Kirby Smart, Georgia - 10%
Mike Elko, Texas A&M - 6%
Kalshi prices are current as of publication, and they move continuously. A “yes” contract at 14¢ implies roughly a 14% chance.
Venables is the conference’s highest-risk coach at 20%, and that number has been there since the market opened. Sarkisian at 16% stands out as the surprise of the group.
DeBoer’s 14% is the one that jumps off the page in Tuscaloosa, where the post-Saban era has already become a weekly referendum. Golding’s 14% is notable because it comes in his first season at Ole Miss, before he’s had much of a chance to build anything.
Kiffin’s 13% at LSU says as much about how the market views him as a perpetual flight risk as it does about LSU itself. The market resolves on any departure, not just a firing, so a coach leaving for another job counts the same as getting pushed out.
Smart’s 10% is the low-water mark for the SEC, and Elko’s 6% is the lowest in the league. Even there, the “yes” side on Elko is asking 18¢, which suggests the market hasn’t seen much action on him yet.
Outside the SEC, the numbers get a lot uglier.
Mike Norvell is the most likely coach in the country to be out by February, sitting at 60% after Week 1. He opened the season with traders giving him about a 22% chance of being gone, then jumped to 62% after Florida State’s opener, and has since settled at 60%. Luke Fickell at Wisconsin is at 57% and still climbing.
Bill Belichick is next in line at 47% at North Carolina, up eight points in a single day in the second year of a five-year deal. Dave Aranda is at 45% at Baylor after a 14-point jump, and Bret Bielema sits at 23% at Illinois.
Deion Sanders is at 18% at Colorado, tied with Dabo Swinney at Clemson and above every SEC coach except Venables. The market is not saying Colorado is about to fire him. It’s saying his health, the NFL chatter and the possibility that he leaves on his own timetable make it feel like there’s a one-in-six chance he won’t be in Boulder next fall for one reason or another.
Against that backdrop, the SEC looks comparatively calm. No coach in the league is above 20%, and the median SEC coach is sitting at 14%, which is exactly where Heupel lands. That’s either reassuring or mildly unsettling, depending on your appetite for averages.
For Tennessee, the simplest read is that the market has Heupel where his record places him: a coach who has made the program better, but not yet good enough to erase all doubt. He’s in the same neighborhood as DeBoer and Drinkwitz, and comfortably away from the coaches who are really sweating.
Still, the number is worth tracking. These markets can move fast, especially after Saturdays.
One loss Tennessee isn’t supposed to take can push a coach from 14% to 25% before the postgame press conference is over, just like Norvell went from 22% to 62% in one weekend. If Tennessee handles October the way its fans expect, Heupel could drift closer to Smart’s 10%.
If it doesn’t, this becomes the quickest hot-seat meter in the sport.
Either way, Tennessee fans can now watch in real time what people with money on the line think about their coach. And anyone who believes the market has Heupel wrong can put a number on that opinion.
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