ESPN’s latest Football Power Index has Tennessee sitting inside the top 20 again, a sign that the Vols are drawing plenty of respect from the analytics side heading into the 2026 season.
The new FPI release on Thursday placed Tennessee at No. 16 with a 15.1 score. That’s a step up from where the Vols finished the 2025 season, when they checked in at No. 19 with a 14.3 rating. Within the SEC, Tennessee lands eighth on the list.
ESPN says, “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.” The rankings are built on 20,000 simulations for the season, and they come with projected chances for key milestones. For Tennessee, the model gives the Vols an 80.8% chance to win at least six games, a 3.3% chance to win the SEC, a 20.5% chance to make the playoffs, a 2.5% chance to make the national championship, and a 1.0% chance to win it all.
The top of the board is loaded with familiar heavyweights. Ohio State is No. 1 with a 28.7 FPI score, while Texas is right behind at 26.9.
At the other end, West Virginia is the lowest-ranked team with a positive FPI, landing at No. 66 with a 0.2 rating. The SEC, meanwhile, doesn’t have a team in negative territory; Mississippi State is the league’s lowest-ranked squad at No. 49 with a 4.1 score.
Tennessee’s schedule also tells the story of a season packed with tough matchups. The Vols open with Furman, then travel to Georgia Tech, which comes in at No. 48 with a 4.2 score.
Kennesaw State sits at No. 106 with a -9.0 rating, while Texas arrives as the No. 2 team in the FPI at 26.9. Auburn is No.
22, Arkansas is No. 47, Alabama checks in at No.
8, South Carolina at No. 23, Kentucky at No.
40, Texas A&M at No. 11, LSU at No. 9, and Vanderbilt at No.
Taken together, ESPN’s model projects Tennessee for a 7.3-4.7 win total next season.
As fall camp approaches next month, the biggest questions around the Vols remain the same. On offense, the quarterback battle is still front and center, with George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon competing for the job. Both are freshmen and bring little to no college game experience, but Tennessee does have help around them in the form of a talented wide receiver group, a strong offensive line, and DeSean Bishop, who is coming off a thousand-yard rushing season.
Defensively, Tennessee spent the offseason making major changes after last year’s struggles. The staff added Jim Knowles, Anthony Poindexter, and others, while also bringing in new personnel through the transfer portal. It was a busy reset for one offseason, but the Vols clearly felt the defense needed it after what happened a year ago.
In Other News...
Another Lady Vols Staff Change Just Raised A Bigger Concern
Another piece of the Lady Vols offseason staff shuffle has now landed with a familiar face moving on. Roman Tubner, who spent the past two seasons as an assistant under Kim Caldwell, was not retained by Tennessee after the season and has since resurfaced elsewhere after previously coaching at Alabama under Kristy Curry. The Lady Vols also made other changes on the bench, bringing in Bill Ferrara and Isoken Uzamere to replace Tubner and Gabe Lazo.
For Tennessee, the bigger concern is not just turnover, but how often the program has had to reset around it. Tubners next stop adds another layer to that dynamic, especially with a transfer decision now tying him back into the same recruiting and roster conversations the Lady Vols are still navigating. Even after the staff changes were announced, the ripple effects of who left, who arrived and who followed are still being felt. [Read more 🡒]
George MacIntyre Just Made A Notable Step In Tennessee's QB Push
George MacIntyres offseason work has given Tennessee something tangible to point to as fall camp approaches. Under new strength coach Derek Owings, the quarterback has added weight and now sits at 208 pounds after arriving on campus much lighter, a sign the programs nutrition and daily weigh-in emphasis is already paying off.
The timing matters because MacIntyre is about to enter a real competition for the starting job, with Faizon Brandon and Colorado transfer Ryan Staub also in the mix. Tennessee set 210 pounds as the target for him, and he is close enough now that the next step is less about the scale and more about how he carries that added size when the pads come on. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessees 2026 Roster Already Looks Different Under New Strength Staff
Tennessees offseason roster update already offers a glimpse of how much can change when a new strength staff gets to work. After hiring Derek Owings, the highest-paid strength coach in college football, the Vols have seen returning players come back with noticeably different bodies, a sign that the program is pushing for a different kind of physical profile heading into 2026.
The changes are not all in one direction, either. Some players have added size and muscle, while others have trimmed down, including a few names across the defense and along the line. For Tennessee, the real intrigue is how those shifts will show up once camp opens and the roster starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a depth chart. [Read more 🡒]