Josh Pate sees trouble brewing for Tennessee.
With Auburn headed to Neyland Stadium on Saturday, the college football analyst put No. 17 Tennessee on upset alert and made it the biggest threat on his Week 5 board, giving Auburn at Tennessee an 8.5 rating on his meter. His concern starts up front, where Tennessee may be missing key pieces after a rough night against Texas.
"I'm worried about Tennessee," Pate said. "This Wendell Moe injury on the offensive line is a really big deal."
Moe left on Tennessee’s opening drive of the 20-17 loss to No. 1 Texas on Sept. 26 and never came back.
Reports surfaced Wednesday that the fifth-year senior is expected to miss the rest of the 2026 season. The 6-foot-2, 330-pound Arizona transfer had started all four games at left guard.
Right guard Sham Umarov is questionable for Saturday, which means Tennessee could line up without either of its starting guards.
That matters against an Auburn team trying to find the right formula on offense. Pate said the Tigers need to lean harder on the ground game and make Jeremiah Cobb a bigger part of the plan.
"They've got to really weaponize Jeremiah Cobb," Pate said. "They've got to run the ball a whole lot better against Tennessee than they did against Florida."
Auburn managed just 102 rushing yards in its 44-39 home loss to Florida on Sept. 19.
Cobb looked more effective a week later in a 21-15 win over Vanderbilt, when he ran for 58 yards on eight carries. The Tigers also come in ranked No. 23 nationally in expected points added per rush.
Pate’s other concern is whether Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown can deliver in a game that may come down to who handles pressure better. Brown followed Auburn coach Alex Golesh from South Florida, but Pate wants to see a steadier performance from the veteran.
"Byrum Brown has been up and down, up and down, maybe even more down than up so far," Pate said. "But this is not a season. This is one game."
Brown has been sacked 14 times in four games, while Tennessee is tied with LSU for the SEC lead with 19 sacks.
Pate also pointed to Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin’s group as a unit that needs to recreate the approach Texas used against Tennessee. The message, in his view, is simple: make the freshman quarterback uncomfortable.
"I need to make a true freshman look like a true freshman," Pate said. "Get them doubting themselves a little bit."
Durkin’s defense allowed 44 points and 495 yards against Florida before bouncing back to hold Vanderbilt to 15 points and 311 yards. Tennessee true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon has thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception, but the Vols still rank No. 100 nationally in passing success rate. Against Texas, Brandon went 17-of-29 for 145 yards, while the Longhorns racked up 10 sacks and 12 tackles for loss.
There’s also a familiar face on Auburn’s sideline. Golesh is back in Knoxville after coordinating Tennessee’s offense for Josh Heupel in 2021, when the Vols set a school record with 511 points.
Both teams enter the matchup at 3-1 with one SEC loss, and Pate believes it’s the kind of game plenty of people may overlook.
He called it "the sneaky game of the afternoon that's not on a lot of people's radars, but could end up being a complete dogfight."
Auburn and Tennessee kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Neyland Stadium on ESPN.
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