The preseason AP Top 25 is always a guessing game, but this year’s men’s college basketball poll feels especially slippery with eligibility questions swirling around the sport. Even so, a few teams look like they landed a little too high or a little too low when the rankings dropped Monday.
Michigan is the clearest case of a blueblood getting dinged harder than it should have been. Yes, the defending national champions lost coach Dusty May to the NBA just a couple of months after finishing on top, and five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. was knocked out for the season in late August.
But the Wolverines still have senior Elliot Cadeau and sophomore Trey McKenney giving the backcourt real stability, and McKenney’s March Madness impact off the bench suggests he’s ready for starter’s minutes. Add transfers J.P.
Estrella and Moustapha Thiam, and Michigan again has the kind of long, physical front line that should rebound and defend at a high level. Sixteenth is too low for the champs.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is the sort of team that could end up making the preseason voters look smart or a little too eager. The Volunteers brought in Sports Illustrated’s top-ranked transfer portal class, and the extra perimeter shooting should help a Rick Barnes offense that has too often fallen short in past NCAA tournaments.
Barnes also has a reputation for getting new pieces to click, even with 13 newcomers and four new starters in the mix. There’s a route to a strong offensive season in the SEC.
But the defense has to hold up, and that’s not a given after Xavier put up 59 second-half points in Tennessee’s first preseason exhibition this past week. Top 25, sure.
Top 10? Not yet.
Arkansas comes with all the usual John Calipari volatility. The roster has promising recruits, useful transfers and a key returnee in forward Billy Richmond, who was last year’s fourth-leading scorer.
But this is still a team that could lean heavily on freshmen, with as many as eight spots on the roster occupied by first-year players. That kind of youth can bring growing pains, especially with experienced transfers and starters Jeremiah Wilkinson and Cooper Bowser expected to matter so much.
The schedule does Arkansas no favors either, with three top-10 opponents on deck in nonconference play. Calipari joked that he was “on crack,” and the point is clear enough: those young players will have to grow up fast.
USC is the one that feels most in need of proof. After back-to-back seasons without an NCAA tournament berth and only seven conference wins last year, Eric Musselman badly needs a rebound in 2026-27.
The Trojans have the offensive firepower to make it happen, especially with Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas in the backcourt. The frontcourt also has real promise with Jacob Cofie, the Ratliff twins and, if he’s healthy, Eric Reibe.
But the injury issues that hurt USC last season are back in the conversation, and Reibe’s status looms especially large as the program’s potential starting center. The talent is there, but with so many new faces and only one ball to go around, USC feels like a team worth waiting on before stamping as a Top 25 lock.
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