Arch Manning’s draft stock took a hit in CBS Sports’ latest mock, but the Texas quarterback still has plenty of season left to change the conversation.
Ryan Wilson’s Monday projection included five quarterbacks in the first round, and Manning wasn’t among them. Wilson wrote, “Not only has Arch Manning not looked like the No. 1 overall pick, compared to recent draft classes, but he also hasn't even looked like a first-rounder,”
Wilson pointed back to a September piece that compared Manning’s first three games in 2026 with the early work of past first-round quarterbacks. The takeaway, in Wilson’s view, was that Manning simply hasn’t separated himself the way a top-of-the-board prospect usually does.
Todd McShay isn’t pushing the panic button nearly as hard, but he does think Manning should stay in school and avoid the 2027 draft. That draft is scheduled for April 29-May 1 in Washington.
"That's not even a knock," McShay said in a clip posted to his YouTube channel on Oct. 1.
"That's like you're making a bunch of money. Let's keep building on this and get another season.
And then when you go to the NFL, you're more ready."
The money angle matters here, too. Per On3’s NIL database, Manning is making $2.5 million this season, which ranks No. 20 among college athletes. That number even tops the base salary of some NFL quarterbacks who were not first-round picks, including New Orleans Saints second-year QB Tyler Shough, who was selected No. 40 in the 2025 draft and is set to earn $1.33 million this season.
Still, the case against Manning isn’t airtight. Through four games, his play has been uneven, but Texas is 4-0 and has already beaten Ohio State, 24-23, and Tennessee, 20-17. His numbers aren’t eye-popping - he ranks 12th among 16 SEC quarterbacks in completion percentage at 63.5 percent and ninth in passing yards per game at 215.5 - yet the full picture is more complicated than a simple stat line.
Texas has also dialed back how often Manning runs, and that may be affecting his rhythm. And he’s not getting a ton of help from junior wide receiver Cam Coleman, who is coming in below his $3 million price tag. Coleman is averaging a career-low 52 receiving yards per game after putting up 59 with the Auburn Tigers in 2025.
The biggest argument for patience is schedule context. Draft evaluations can get skewed when one quarterback is facing a much tougher slate than another, and Manning’s path has been far more demanding than the one Miami junior QB Darian Mensah has seen so far.
Wilson has Mensah going first overall to the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3.
As of Monday, ESPN Football Power Index had Miami at No. 70 in strength of schedule, while Texas sat at No. 2.
Mensah finally got a meaningful test in Miami’s 41-13 Week 5 road win over Clemson, and he handled it cleanly, completing 18 of 27 passes for 227 yards and one touchdown. But Manning’s résumé against top competition isn’t exactly empty either.
He’s already faced two AP Top 25 teams - No. 5 Ohio State and No.
15 Tennessee - and in those games he went 37 of 56 for 396 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
One of those picks was a rough break, with the ball deflecting off Coleman and into the hands of Ohio State safety Jaylen McClain.
For now, the safer read is simple: Manning’s 2027 draft outlook is still very much in motion. And a win over the 2-2 Oklahoma Sooners in Dallas on Saturday would only help his case.
ABC will carry the game at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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