Greg McElroy is calling for a tight one in Knoxville, and he’s tying Texas’ edge to a simple question: can Tennessee’s run game hold up when it finally sees an SEC defense?
On his Always College Football podcast, the ESPN analyst picked No. 1 Texas to beat No.
14 Tennessee 24-20 in Saturday’s noon ET kickoff on ABC. It will be the Longhorns’ first road game of the season after opening with three straight at home in Austin, and they’ll do it with College GameDay on campus at Neyland Stadium.
"If you want to talk about easing into life on the road, that's not it," McElroy warned. "This is learning how to swim in the deep end of the pool."
Texas arrives with Arch Manning at quarterback, wearing No. 16 - the same number Peyton Manning wore at Tennessee before the school retired it in 2005. The New Orleans native helped Texas erase a 23-3 fourth-quarter deficit to knock off then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 on Sept. 12, but he was only about halfway accurate in last week’s 30-6 win over UTSA.
Tennessee’s offense has been rolling, too. True freshman Faizon Brandon, from Greensboro, North Carolina, is set for his first SEC start after throwing for 552 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. But he also lost one fumble on a strip sack and had another against Kennesaw State.
"If Brandon plays turnover-free, then Tennessee, I think, has a lot of chances to pull this upset," McElroy said.
The Vols have leaned hard on the ground game, averaging 47.7 points per game, with DeSean Bishop leading the way. He has 286 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries, though he left the Kennesaw State game with a hip injury.
Josh Heupel said Monday, "We'll make sure he's fully ready to go on Saturday." The SEC’s first availability report of the week is due Wednesday night.
McElroy wasn’t ready to fully trust Tennessee’s offense yet, though.
"Tennessee has maybe the best unit on the field, and that's the run game so far," McElroy said. "However, we don't really know just yet. We don't trust it just yet because of who it came against."
He also pointed to a striking Heupel trend: "In his career, Josh Heupel is 57-2 when his team runs for 200 yards. He is 19-26 when it does not."
Texas may also be watching the status of edge rusher Colin Simmons, who left last week’s game at halftime and spent the second half in a walking boot. Steve Sarkisian downplayed the concern.
"I don't think [Colin's injury] is serious," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. "It was more precautionary to get him out. I think Colin will be fine."
McElroy said the matchup could come down to whether Texas can get off the field without bringing extra pressure.
"If Texas can win on third-and-long without blitzing, then an 18-year-old's got to beat the No. 1 team with his arm," McElroy said.
His pick also leaned on another Heupel stat: "Heupel is 1-11 in his career when his team scores fewer than 21 points, and 20 is exactly where I think Tennessee ends up," McElroy said. "I'm taking the Texas Longhorns to win this game 24-20."
Tennessee is 2-17 all time against AP No. 1 teams, and its last win over one came in 1985, when the Vols beat Bo Jackson and Auburn 38-20 at Neyland Stadium.
In Other News...
Tennessee Just Lost A Trusted Piece At The Worst Possible Time
Tennessee took a hit at a position group it had been counting on when tight end Ethan Davis went down with an ACL injury that will keep him out for the rest of the 2026 season. The timing makes it especially tough for the Volunteers, who are trying to keep their offense on track while also leaning on one of the more dependable pieces in the room.
Davis has already said he plans to return to Tennessee for a fifth season, which gives the Volunteers something to build around once he is healthy again. For now, though, tight ends coach Alec Abeln says he believes the rest of the group is ready to step in as Tennessee turns its attention to an upcoming matchup with Texas. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessee's Biggest Home Games Are Creating A Brutal Knoxville Squeeze
The calendar is barely into the heart of football season, but Knoxville is already feeling the pressure around Tennessees biggest home dates. With No. 1 Texas coming to Neyland Stadium on Sept. 26, lodging near campus has become scarce, and the remaining rooms are carrying a premium that has been hard to miss for fans trying to make plans.
Many hotels are already sold out, and even the short-term rental market has been pushed well beyond its usual range. Airbnb listings around the city are running at two to three times normal rates, with some properties topping $1,000 a night, and the squeeze does not figure to ease soon with Alabama also looming on the home schedule. [Read more 🡒]
Tennessees Freshman QB Faces His First Real SEC Measuring Stick
Through three games, Faizon Brandon has given Tennessee plenty to like from a freshman quarterback adjusting to the speed of college football. He has completed 41 of 64 passes for 552 yards and six touchdowns, added 137 rushing yards, and found the end zone three more times on the ground, production that has helped steady the Vols offense early in the 2026 season.
The next test is a different kind of reveal. ESPNs updated Total QBR rankings put Brandon sixth in the SEC with a 79.0 rating, and Tennessee is about to open league play against No. 1 Texas, where senior quarterback Arch Manning has already piled up 664 passing yards and seven touchdowns. For Brandon, the question now is less about promising starts and more about how that growth holds up when the Vols step into an SEC opener with national stakes attached. [Read more 🡒]