Las Vegas has already drawn a line around the NFL’s deepest Super Bowl longshots, and the picture it paints is less about trophies than about survival, clarity and future upside. Seven teams sit at +10000 or worse, and for most of them, a successful season means leaving February with a better answer than they had in September.
Tennessee, at the shortest end of this group, is trying to build something stable around quarterback Cam Ward and first-year coach Robert Saleh. The Titans have spent big, especially on defense, where they committed $125 million in total guaranteed money.
That group may need time to settle in, but the bigger idea is straightforward: start looking and feeling like Saleh’s kind of team. If that happens, Tennessee could spend next offseason filling in the edges instead of reworking the whole operation, which would set up a bigger move within the AFC South.
At the very least, the Titans need to avoid showing up on this list again next year.
Atlanta’s situation is more complicated, and the mood around the franchise is not exactly upbeat. Even so, the Falcons can point to a rare collection of offensive talent in Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.
The clearest win would be getting an answer on Michael Penix Jr., one way or the other, before the offseason arrives. If Penix is healthy and proves to be an investment-caliber quarterback, Atlanta can focus its resources elsewhere.
If he does not, and neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Penix gives the team confidence, that could push the Falcons toward a different direction at quarterback. Either way, the franchise would also be counting on a full season from edge rushers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker, with the added benefit of leading the league in projected salary cap space by a wide margin, according to Spotrac.
For the Raiders, the whole thing comes back to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and first-year coach Klint Kubiak. Kirk Cousins has been named the Week 1 starter, but Mendoza has to get on the field this season and show why he was taken so early.
That kind of development would give Las Vegas something real to build on entering 2027. The Raiders would also help themselves by adding another premium talent with an early draft pick as part of the long-term plan.
They, too, are sitting among the top-10 teams in projected cap space.
Cleveland’s path is shaped by what it already knows and what it still needs. The Browns had what was arguably the best rookie class a year ago, and the early signs from the 2026 draft class have been encouraging as well.
Quarterback limitations have kept the ceiling low this season, but the trade of Myles Garrett has positioned them to go after that answer next offseason. A strong outcome would mean feeling good about offensive tackle Spencer Fano and receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion, while also being in position to draft the quarterback they want in 2027.
That would be the third straight year Cleveland has been in the top six overall of a one-quarterback draft without landing that player. It also matters that 2027 would be the first season since 2021 without Deshaun Watson on the roster.
The Jets are the hardest team in this group to read because the franchise’s best interests and the coaching staff’s best interests are not the same thing. Aaron Glenn needs wins to keep his job, but too many wins could leave New York outside the range of a franchise quarterback.
The Jets do have three first-round picks if they want to move up and another team is willing to deal, but that still does not guarantee a clean path. If the top three picks in a draft all go quarterback, as they did in 2024, there may be nowhere to go.
The ideal outcome is almost impossible to thread: bad enough to get a quarterback, good enough to keep the staff, and not so aggressive with assets that the future gets stripped bare. Even so, the Jets will also be watching to see whether D'Angelo Ponds can handle cornerback duties, whether David Bailey really is the elite talent he was billed as, and whether Omar Cooper Jr. or Kenyon Sadiq can become real offensive outlets.
Miami’s best-case scenario depends on who you ask. One Dolphins fan might want Malik Willis to play well enough that the team feels good about building around him, especially with Miami projected to have $104 million in cap space, fifth-most in the NFL.
Another might prefer a complete reset and a shot at the No. 1 pick next April. The Dolphins used 13 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, so finding four or five starters from that group would count as a strong return.
Right now, De'Von Achane is the only clear impact performer on the roster, with Chop Robinson potentially joining him.
Arizona’s hope is built on defense first. The Cardinals have plenty of young pieces there, and if Walter Nolen II or Will Johnson Jr. turns into a blue-chip player, the whole unit gets a lot more interesting.
Denzel Burke, Max Melton and Garrett Williams have each flashed at different points, and anything from Darius Robinson would be a bonus. On offense, the bar is different: the Cardinals need confidence in Mike LaFleur’s scheme and in how Jeremiyah Love, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. are used.
But none of that matters much if the quarterback situation never stabilizes. Jacoby Brissett may be fine for now, and Carson Beck can probably string together some decent games, but neither looks like a long-term answer.
Without that piece, next season is a wash.
In Other News...
Titans Secondary Still Has One Week 1 Concern Robert Saleh Must Fix
The Titans went into the offseason knowing their secondary needed help, and the additions of Alontae Taylor and CorDale Flott gave Robert Saleh two corners with the kind of upside that can change the feel of a defense. Taylor has flashed throughout camp, piling up three interceptions and pairing that with a strong 2025 coverage grade, while Flott has shown he can hold his own too, finishing above the NFL average even if the route there has not been perfectly clean.
The problem is that the talent has come with some coverage mistakes and penalties that can quickly turn into drive-extending plays once the games count. For Tennessee, the next step is not just getting both corners on the field, but getting them on the same page with the rest of the back end, and that puts the spotlight on Salehs ability to tighten up communication and assignments before Week 1 arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Titans Secondary Still Has One Problem A Big Trade Could Solve
The Titans have spent the offseason trying to reshape a secondary that still looks like a work in progress, even after bringing in corners Alontae Taylor and CorDale Flott. Through preseason action, the group has yet to flash the kind of clear dominance Tennessee would like to see, which keeps the back end squarely on the radar as the regular season approaches.
One possible answer is hanging out in New England, where Christian Gonzalez is dealing with a contract dispute that could push his status into season-opening uncertainty. The Patriots have not publicly shopped him, but if the holdout stretches on, Tennessee could be among the teams that at least checks in on what a trade would take, especially if the Titans want a more proven piece to stabilize the defense. [Read more 🡒]
Titans May Already Be Setting Up Dan Moores Biggest 2026 Pressure
Dan Moore arrived in Tennessee on a four-year deal in 2025 with the expectation that he would help stabilize the Titans pass protection, but his struggles in that area have already made his long-term standing worth monitoring. For a team trying to build something more dependable up front, left tackle is too important a spot to leave unanswered for long, especially when the early returns have already raised questions.
Trevor Goosby is one name that could eventually enter the conversation if the Titans decide they need a different answer on the edge. He is seen as a developing tackle with strong athletic traits and the kind of upside that makes him an intriguing future left tackle, which is exactly why the 2026 season could matter so much for Moores hold on the job. [Read more 🡒]